National Hockey League odds Thursday, November 19
Win chance, spread and total for every game. This week's National Hockey League odds · Today's National Hockey League predictions · Standings · every league
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers. How the model works · Axle 2.0 · Betting guide
National Hockey League odds Thursday, November 19
12 games| Game | Kick (ET) | Axle win | Spread | Total | Moneyline (away / home) | Movement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blues at Penguins | Penguins 51% | PK | 6 | +103 / −103 | no move | Matchup | |
| Canadiens at Hurricanes | Hurricanes 62% | Hurricanes −1 | 6.5 | +164 / −164 | no move | Matchup | |
| Flyers at Senators | Senators 62% | Senators −1 | 6.5 | +163 / −163 | no move | Matchup | |
| Islanders at Jets | Jets 54% | Jets −0.5 | 6.5 | +117 / −117 | no move | Matchup | |
| Kings at Maple Leafs | Maple Leafs 54% | Maple Leafs −0.5 | 6.5 | +116 / −116 | no move | Matchup | |
| Sabres at Capitals | Capitals 54% | Capitals −0.5 | 6.5 | +119 / −119 | no move | Matchup | |
| Oilers at Lightning | Lightning 58% | Lightning −0.5 | 6.5 | +136 / −136 | no move | Matchup | |
| Blue Jackets at Blackhawks | Blue Jackets 59% | Blue Jackets −0.5 | 6 | −144 / +144 | no move | Matchup | |
| Wild at Flames | Wild 63% | Wild −0.5 | 6 | −168 / +168 | no move | Matchup | |
| Ducks at Avalanche | Avalanche 65% | Avalanche −1 | 7.5 | +185 / −185 | no move | Matchup | |
| Canucks at Kraken | Kraken 66% | Kraken −1 | 7 | +192 / −192 | no move | Matchup | |
| Stars at Golden Knights | Golden Knights 56% | Golden Knights −0.5 | 6 | +127 / −127 | no move | Matchup |
How these lines are made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal inputs
- Ratings from results used in 12 of 12
an Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results - Home advantage used in 12 of 12
the league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results - Schedule in the data but not used for 12
rest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures - Recent form in the data but not used for 12
average margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External inputs
- Injuries unavailable for 12 (More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that window)
players listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores - Travel and time zones in the data but not used for 10 · unavailable for 2 (A previous venue or its coordinates is not stored)
distance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · newest read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC - Weather unavailable for 12 (Indoor sport)
forecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
National Hockey League team ratings
The Elo-style ratings the lines are made from, after the latest results. The league mean is 1500.
| # | Team | Rating | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carolina Hurricanes | 1612 | 20 |
| 2 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 1569 | 19 |
| 3 | Colorado Avalanche | 1567 | 20 |
| 4 | Minnesota Wild | 1564 | 21 |
| 5 | Montreal Canadiens | 1551 | 19 |
| 6 | Vegas Golden Knights | 1548 | 20 |
| 7 | Edmonton Oilers | 1539 | 20 |
| 8 | Boston Bruins | 1538 | 19 |
| 9 | Dallas Stars | 1531 | 18 |
| 10 | Ottawa Senators | 1527 | 20 |
| 11 | New Jersey Devils | 1525 | 20 |
| 12 | Washington Capitals | 1523 | 17 |
Top 12 of 32; every team's rating is on its page.
National Hockey League model record
Over 4419 National Hockey League games in 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, scored before each result was known: the favored side won 57% of the time, Brier score 0.2412, mean spread error 2.135 points, mean total error 1.863. Calibration and method.
Bandwagon's model lines for National Hockey League games Thursday, November 19: win probability, spread, total and moneyline for each game, movement since the last line, and the team ratings behind them. Not a sportsbook.