Utah Royals vs Washington Spirit prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Utah Royals at Washington Spirit: Bandwagon's model makes Washington Spirit a 55% favorite (Washington Spirit −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 59%.
Utah Royals vs Washington Spirit model odds and win probability
Axle gives Washington Spirit a 55% chance to win, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NWSL marketEach bar is the chance that Washington Spirit win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 55%.
The largest gap is 5 points: Polymarket has Washington Spirit at 60%, Axle at 55%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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Why Axle has Washington Spirit
All NWSL ratings| UTA | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1494 9th of 16 | 1572 3rd of 16 |
| Record | 14-11-5 | 17-9-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WAS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | — |
Utah Royals vs Washington Spirit odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NWSL marketKalshi prices Washington Spirit at 59%, Polymarket at 60% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 55%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UTA | Draw | WAS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 19% | 22% | 59% | ||
| Polymarket | 19% | 21% | 60% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 24% | 21% | 55% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Utah Royals vs Washington Spirit prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Washington Spirit a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 55% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Washington Spirit 1572 (3rd of 16), Utah Royals 1494 (9th). The Washington Spirit are 17-9-4; the Utah Royals are 14-11-5. The Washington Spirit have won 4 of their last 5; the Utah Royals 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Washington Spirit won 3, the Utah Royals 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Utah Royals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Diego Wave FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Gotham FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Reign FC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Current | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Louisville FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Spirit
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Thorns FC | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Chicago Stars FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Current | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Gotham FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dash | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Spirit at Utah Royals | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Royals at Washington Spirit | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Spirit at Utah Royals | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Royals at Washington Spirit | 3–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Spirit at Utah Royals | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Royals at Washington Spirit | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Utah Royals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Spirit: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Utah Royals14-11-5 7th
- Utah Royals rating1494 9th of 16, 31 games
- Washington Spirit17-9-4 3rd
- Washington Spirit rating1572 3rd of 16, 31 games
More NWSL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Utah Royals 14-11-5
National Women's Soccer League · 7th
No stances yet today on $UTAHROYALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah Royals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Washington Spirit 17-9-4
National Women's Soccer League · 3rd
No stances yet today on $SPIRIT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Spirit bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Utah Royals at Washington Spirit
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Washington Spirit 55% to win, draw 21%. Projected score Washington Spirit 1.6, Utah Royals 0.9; spread Washington Spirit −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 59%, Polymarket 60% for Washington Spirit. Utah Royals at Washington Spirit, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ET.