Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerSan Diego Wave FC 57%
- Projected scoreSan Diego Wave FC 1.6, Utah Royals 0.9
- Model spreadSan Diego Wave FC −1 total 2.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Utah Royals or San Diego Wave FC: the bandwagon
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Axle 23–57Market 18–62
Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | UTA | SD |
|---|---|---|
| Score | UTA– | SD– |
| Average win probability | UTA– | SD– |
| Longest scoring run | UTA– | SD– |
| Time leading | UTA– | SD– |
Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | SD win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 57% | — |
- Ratings
- SD 1568 · UTA 1479
- Home spread
- −1
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NWSL marketKalshi prices San Diego Wave FC at 60%, Polymarket at 64% (4 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UTA | Draw | SD | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 22% | 18% | 60% | ||
| Polymarket | 15% | 22% | 64% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 23% | 21% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Utah Royals vs San Diego Wave FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the San Diego Wave FC a 1-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: San Diego Wave FC 1568 (4th of 16), Utah Royals 1479 (10th). The San Diego Wave FC are 17-8-4; the Utah Royals are 14-10-5. The San Diego Wave FC have won 4 of their last 5; the Utah Royals 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the San Diego Wave FC won 6, the Utah Royals 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Utah Royals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Gotham FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Seattle Reign FC | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas City Current | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Louisville FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Courage | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
San Diego Wave FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bay FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Legacy FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Carolina Courage | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Pride | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Louisville FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC | 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego Wave FC at Utah Royals | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego Wave FC at Utah Royals | 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego Wave FC at Utah Royals | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Utah Royals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
San Diego Wave FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Utah Royals14-10-5 6th
- Utah Royals rating1479 10th of 16, 30 games
- San Diego Wave FC17-8-4 2nd
- San Diego Wave FC rating1568 4th of 16, 30 games
Utah Royals 14-10-5
National Women's Soccer League · 6th
1 stance today on $UTAHROYALS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah Royals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
San Diego Wave FC 17-8-4
National Women's Soccer League · 2nd
No stances yet today on $WAVE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego Wave FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC
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Model: San Diego Wave FC 57% to win, draw 21%. Projected score San Diego Wave FC 1.6, Utah Royals 0.9; spread San Diego Wave FC −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 64% for San Diego Wave FC. Utah Royals at San Diego Wave FC, Fri, Nov 6, 10:00 PM ET.