NWSL tonight: San Diego Wave FC beat Bay FC 1-0, so the result favours the away side. Our model had Bay at 21 percent to win before kickoff, and no crowd picks were recorded in the thread.
NWSL · · PayPal Park · every National Women's Soccer League line
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scoreSan Diego Wave FC 1, Bay FC 0 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerSan Diego Wave FC 59%
- Pregame Projected scoreSan Diego Wave FC 1.8, Bay FC 1.3
- Model spreadSan Diego Wave FC −0.5 total 3
- Margin1 projected 0.5
- Total1 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
San Diego Wave FC or Bay FC: the bandwagon
Axle 59–21Market –
FinalPregame: BAY 31%Baseline: BAY 12.0% (−19.2)Big swing: 18.4 ptsClutch window: 45:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| BAY | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
SD 56.6%BAY 43.4%
San Diego Wave FC at Bay FC win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumSwinging to SD−3.3 points for BAY over the last 10:00
Big swing18.4 ptstoward SD at 11:00 of game time
Clutch window45:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineBAY 12.0%game average, −19.2 points from the pregame 31.2%
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | SD | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | SD56.6% | BAY43.4% |
| Shots | SD12 | BAY9 |
| Shots on target | SD2 | BAY4 |
| Corners | SD7 | BAY1 |
| Passes completed | SD434/522 | BAY304/393 |
| Saves | SD4 | BAY1 |
| Fouls | SD11 | BAY10 |
| Offsides | SD2 | BAY0 |
| Yellow cards | SD0 | BAY0 |
| Red cards | SD0 | BAY0 |
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | SD | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SD1 | BAY0 |
| Average win probability | SD88% | BAY12% |
| Longest scoring run | SD+1 | BAY+0 |
| Time leading | SD79:00 | BAY0:00 |
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET
San Diego Wave FC59%
Win chanceBay FC21%
SpreadSD −0.5closing model spread
Total3
Moneyline−146away / +402draw / +381homeaway / draw / home
Line movementBAY win chance, 8 stored lines
−9 pts for BAY between Oct 29 and Nov 1
35%13%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | BAY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 21% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 21% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 7:59 AM ET | 18% | −12 |
| Oct 29, 6:02 AM ET | 30% | — |
- Ratings
- BAY 1391 · SD 1562
- Home spread
- +0.5
- Stored
- Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET · 2026-11-02 00:01 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: San Diego Wave FC 1, Bay FC 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
San Diego Wave FCBay FC
Neutrals only–
San Diego Wave FCBay FC
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Bay FC–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
San Diego Wave FC vs Bay FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the San Diego Wave FC a 0.5-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win and a 20% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Bay FC 1384 (14th of 16), San Diego Wave FC 1568 (4th). The Bay FC are 7-16-6; the San Diego Wave FC are 17-8-4. The Bay FC have won 0 of their last 5; the San Diego Wave FC 4 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bay FC won 2, the San Diego Wave FC 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
San Diego Wave FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Bay FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Legacy FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Carolina Courage | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Pride | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Racing Louisville FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup |
Bay FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs San Diego Wave FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Angel City FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Thorns FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Current | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Pride | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bay FC at San Diego Wave FC | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego Wave FC at Bay FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bay FC at San Diego Wave FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| San Diego Wave FC at Bay FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bay FC at San Diego Wave FC | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
San Diego Wave FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bay FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- San Diego Wave FC17-8-4 2nd
- San Diego Wave FC rating1568 4th of 16, 30 games
- Bay FC7-16-6 14th
- Bay FC rating1384 14th of 16, 30 games
San Diego Wave FC 17-8-4
National Women's Soccer League · 2nd
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $WAVE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $WAVE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $WAVE
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $WAVE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the San Diego Wave FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bay FC 7-16-6
National Women's Soccer League · 14th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $BAYFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $BAYFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $BAYFC
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $BAYFC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bay FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on San Diego Wave FC at Bay FC
Sign in to post a take on $WAVEBAYFC261101: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
Final: San Diego Wave FC 1, Bay FC 0. Bandwagon's model had the San Diego Wave FC at 59% and projected San Diego Wave FC 1.8, Bay FC 1.3; spread San Diego Wave FC −0.5, total 3.