Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerWashington Spirit 47%
- Projected scoreWashington Spirit 1.7, Portland Thorns FC 1.3
- Model spreadWashington Spirit −0.5 total 3
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Portland Thorns FC or Washington Spirit: the bandwagon
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Axle 30–47Market 20–58
Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | POR | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Score | POR– | WAS– |
| Average win probability | POR– | WAS– |
| Longest scoring run | POR– | WAS– |
| Time leading | POR– | WAS– |
Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | WAS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 47% | — |
- Ratings
- WAS 1559 · POR 1529
- Home spread
- −0.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:35 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every NWSL marketKalshi prices Washington Spirit at 58%, Polymarket at 58%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | POR | Draw | WAS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 20% | 22% | 58% | ||
| Polymarket | 19% | 23% | 58% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 30% | 23% | 47% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Portland Thorns FC vs Washington Spirit prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Washington Spirit a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 47% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Washington Spirit 1559 (5th of 16), Portland Thorns FC 1529 (6th). The Washington Spirit are 16-9-4; the Portland Thorns FC are 13-8-8. The Washington Spirit have won 3 of their last 5; the Portland Thorns FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Washington Spirit won 4, the Portland Thorns FC 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Portland Thorns FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Dash | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Courage | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bay FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Legacy FC | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dash | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Spirit
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chicago Stars FC | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kansas City Current | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Gotham FC | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Houston Dash | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Angel City FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Spirit at Portland Thorns FC | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Spirit at Portland Thorns FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Thorns FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Spirit: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Portland Thorns FC13-8-8 7th
- Portland Thorns FC rating1529 6th of 16, 30 games
- Washington Spirit16-9-4 3rd
- Washington Spirit rating1559 5th of 16, 30 games
Portland Thorns FC 13-8-8
National Women's Soccer League · 7th
No stances yet today on $THORNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Thorns FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Washington Spirit 16-9-4
National Women's Soccer League · 3rd
No stances yet today on $SPIRIT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Spirit bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit
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Model: Washington Spirit 47% to win, draw 23%. Projected score Washington Spirit 1.7, Portland Thorns FC 1.3; spread Washington Spirit −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 58%, Polymarket 58% for Washington Spirit. Portland Thorns FC at Washington Spirit, Sun, Nov 8, 3:00 PM ET.