NWSL tonight: Portland Thorns FC beat the Houston Dash 2-0, and the final score is the whole story here. The model had Houston at 31 percent before kickoff, and no fans have weighed in on the match yet.
NWSL · · Shell Energy Stadium · every National Women's Soccer League line
Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash: final score and how the prediction did, November 1, 2026
- Final scorePortland Thorns FC 2, Houston Dash 0 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerPortland Thorns FC 46%
- Pregame Projected scorelevel, 1.5 each draw 23%
- Model spreadeven total 3
- Margin2 projected 0
- Total2 projected 3
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Portland Thorns FC or Houston Dash: the bandwagon
Bandwagon
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Axle 46–31Market –
FinalPregame: HOU 43%Baseline: HOU 22.1% (−20.6)Big swing: 26.7 ptsClutch window: 24:00
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| POR | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
POR 43%HOU 57%
Portland Thorns FC at Houston Dash win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−0.1 points for HOU over the last 10:00
Big swing26.7 ptstoward POR at 35:00 of game time
Clutch window24:00within 1 goals in the final half
BaselineHOU 22.1%game average, −20.6 points from the pregame 42.7%
Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | POR | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Possession | POR43% | HOU57% |
| Shots | POR18 | HOU14 |
| Shots on target | POR9 | HOU5 |
| Corners | POR9 | HOU8 |
| Passes completed | POR223/292 | HOU327/395 |
| Saves | POR5 | HOU7 |
| Fouls | POR7 | HOU10 |
| Offsides | POR5 | HOU0 |
| Yellow cards | POR1 | HOU0 |
| Red cards | POR0 | HOU0 |
Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | POR | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | POR2 | HOU0 |
| Average win probability | POR78% | HOU22% |
| Longest scoring run | POR+2 | HOU+0 |
| Time leading | POR55:00 | HOU0:00 |
Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 1, 7:06 PM ET
Portland Thorns FC46%
Win chanceHouston Dash31%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total3
Moneyline+116away / +337draw / +224homeaway / draw / home
Line movementHOU win chance, 9 stored lines
−3 pts for HOU between Oct 29 and Nov 1
40%24%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 1
Every stored line
| Stored | HOU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 7:06 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:06 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 7:01 PM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 31% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:28 PM ET | 31% | +1 |
| Oct 29, 7:59 AM ET | 30% | −4 |
| Oct 29, 6:02 AM ET | 34% | — |
- Ratings
- HOU 1432 · POR 1515
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 1, 7:06 PM ET · 2026-11-02 00:06 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Portland Thorns FC 2, Houston Dash 0. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In National Women's Soccer League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 1, 2:58 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
Portland Thorns FCHouston Dash
Neutrals only–
Portland Thorns FCHouston Dash
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Houston Dash–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Portland Thorns FC vs Houston Dash prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Portland Thorns FC the favorite, with a 46% chance to win and a 23% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Houston Dash 1418 (13th of 16), Portland Thorns FC 1529 (6th). The Houston Dash are 9-14-6; the Portland Thorns FC are 13-8-8. The Houston Dash have won 1 of their last 5; the Portland Thorns FC 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Houston Dash won 1, the Portland Thorns FC 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Portland Thorns FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Dash | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Carolina Courage | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bay FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Legacy FC | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dash | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Houston Dash
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Portland Thorns FC | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Chicago Stars FC | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Orlando Pride | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Spirit | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Portland Thorns FC | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Dash at Portland Thorns FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Dash at Portland Thorns FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Houston Dash | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Houston Dash | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Houston Dash at Portland Thorns FC | 1–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Portland Thorns FC at Houston Dash | 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Portland Thorns FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Houston Dash: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Portland Thorns FC13-8-8 7th
- Portland Thorns FC rating1529 6th of 16, 30 games
- Houston Dash9-14-6 12th
- Houston Dash rating1418 13th of 16, 30 games
Portland Thorns FC 13-8-8
National Women's Soccer League · 7th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $THORNS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $THORNS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $THORNS
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $THORNS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Portland Thorns FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Houston Dash 9-14-6
National Women's Soccer League · 12th
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $DASH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $DASH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $DASH
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $DASH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Houston Dash bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Portland Thorns FC at Houston Dash
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