Calgary Flames vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Flames at Penguins: Bandwagon's model makes the Penguins a 58% favorite (Penguins −0.5).
Calgary Flames vs Pittsburgh Penguins model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Penguins a 58% chance to win.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NHL marketEach bar is the chance that the Penguins win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 58%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Polymarket has the Penguins at 59%, Axle at 58%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before puck drop
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before puck drop. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Penguins
All NHL ratings| CGY | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1451 28th of 32 | 1486 19th of 32 |
| Record | 8-10-1 | 7-10-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | PIT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 13, 12:18 AM ET | 58% | −1 |
| Nov 12, 10:48 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:53 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 9:43 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 2:52 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 12, 5:04 AM ET | 59% | — |
Flames vs Penguins odds on Polymarket
Every NHL marketPolymarket prices the Penguins at 59%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 58%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CGY | PIT | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 41% | 59% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 42% | 58% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Calgary Flames vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Penguins a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 6. Ratings: Penguins 1486 (19th of 32), Flames 1451 (28th). The Penguins are 7-10-2 in the Metropolitan Division; the Flames are 8-10-1 in the Pacific Division. The Penguins have won 2 of their last 5; the Flames 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Penguins won 3, the Flames 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Calgary Flames
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs New York Rangers | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia Flyers | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Anaheim Ducks | L 3–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Seattle Kraken | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Sharks | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Pittsburgh Penguins
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at San Jose Sharks | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Anaheim Ducks | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Kings | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Bruins | L 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vegas Golden Knights | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames | 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins | 2–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Pittsburgh Penguins at Calgary Flames | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins | 2–5 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Calgary Flames: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Pittsburgh Penguins: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Flames8-10-1 Pacific Division, 6th · L1
- Flames rating1451 28th of 32, 19 games
- Penguins7-10-2 Metropolitan Division, 6th · W1
- Penguins rating1486 19th of 32, 19 games
More NHL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Calgary Flames 8-10-1
National Hockey League · Pacific Division · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $FLAMES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Calgary Flames bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Pittsburgh Penguins 7-10-2
National Hockey League · Metropolitan Division · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PENGUINS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Penguins bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Hockey League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Penguins 58% to win. Projected score Penguins 3.3, Flames 2.7; spread Penguins −0.5, total 6. Polymarket 59% for the Penguins. Calgary Flames at Pittsburgh Penguins, Wed, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ET.