Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Wizards at Raptors: Bandwagon's model makes the Raptors a 75% favorite (Raptors −9).
Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Raptors a 75% chance to win, by about 9 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Raptors win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 75%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Axle has the Raptors at 75%, Polymarket at 66%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Raptors
All NBA ratings| WSH | TOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1295 28th of 30 | 1518 15th of 30 |
| Record | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 75% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 74% | −3 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:13 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 12:37 AM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET | 77% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 77% | +2 |
| Nov 7, 7:39 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 1:09 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:49 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET | 75% | +1 |
| Nov 6, 10:30 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:25 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:20 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 12:42 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 11:31 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | — |
Wizards vs Raptors odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Raptors at 66%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 75%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | WSH | TOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 34% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 25% | 75% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Washington Wizards vs Toronto Raptors prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Raptors a 9-point favorite at home, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 226. Ratings: Raptors 1518 (15th of 30), Wizards 1295 (28th). The Raptors are 5-5 in the Atlantic; the Wizards are 4-7 in the Southeast. The Raptors have won 2 of their last 5; the Wizards 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Raptors won 5, the Wizards 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Pistons | L 111–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 75–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 132–139 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup |
Toronto Raptors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Memphis Grizzlies | L 102–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 121–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | L 109–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | W 125–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 125–131 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards | 112–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards | 134–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards | 117–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors | 110–140 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards | 113–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards | 112–104 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toronto Raptors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wizards4-7 Southeast, 3rd · L4
- Wizards rating1295 28th of 30, 11 games
- Raptors5-5 Atlantic, 2nd · L1
- Raptors rating1518 15th of 30, 10 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Toronto Raptors 5-5
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $RAPTORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Raptors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Raptors 75% to win. Projected score Raptors 118, Wizards 108; spread Raptors −9, total 226. Polymarket 66% for the Raptors. Washington Wizards at Toronto Raptors, Wed, Nov 18, 7:30 PM ET.