Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Raptors at Pistons: Bandwagon's model makes the Pistons a 72% favorite (Pistons −8).
Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Pistons a 72% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Pistons win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 72%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Axle has the Pistons at 72%, Polymarket at 65%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Pistons
All NBA ratings| TOR | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1518 15th of 30 | 1667 4th of 30 |
| Record | 5-5 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | DET win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 72% | +3 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 69% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:37 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:17 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:38 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:43 PM ET | 68% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 5:53 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:25 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET | 70% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 70% | — |
Raptors vs Pistons odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Pistons at 65%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 72%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | DET | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 35% | 65% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Toronto Raptors vs Detroit Pistons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Pistons a 8-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 225. Ratings: Pistons 1667 (4th of 30), Raptors 1518 (15th). The Pistons are 7-3 in the Central; the Raptors are 5-5 in the Atlantic. The Pistons have won 3 of their last 5; the Raptors 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Pistons won 5, the Raptors 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Toronto Raptors
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Memphis Grizzlies | L 102–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Milwaukee Bucks | W 121–107 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Denver Nuggets | L 109–128 | – | – | matchup | |
| at LA Clippers | W 125–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Los Angeles Lakers | L 125–131 | – | – | matchup |
Detroit Pistons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Washington Wizards | W 122–111 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Los Angeles Lakers | L 116–121 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 106–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte Hornets | W 124–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brooklyn Nets | W 110–94 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons | 125–129 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons | 116–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors | 108–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors | 113–95 | – | – | matchup | |
| Detroit Pistons at Toronto Raptors | 117–105 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons | 114–123 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Toronto Raptors: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Detroit Pistons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Raptors5-5 Atlantic, 2nd · L1
- Raptors rating1518 15th of 30, 10 games
- Pistons7-3 Central, 5th · W1
- Pistons rating1667 4th of 30, 10 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Toronto Raptors 5-5
National Basketball Association · Atlantic · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $RAPTORS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toronto Raptors bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Detroit Pistons 7-3
National Basketball Association · Central · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $PISTONS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Detroit Pistons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Pistons 72% to win. Projected score Pistons 117, Raptors 108; spread Pistons −8, total 225. Polymarket 65% for the Pistons. Toronto Raptors at Detroit Pistons, Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ET.