Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Nuggets at Bulls: Bandwagon's model makes the Nuggets a 75% favorite (Nuggets −6).
Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Nuggets a 75% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Nuggets win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 75%.
All 2 sources have the Nuggets at 75%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Nuggets
All NBA ratings| DEN | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1583 10th of 30 | 1328 24th of 30 |
| Record | 5-4 | 1-8 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | CHI win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 25% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 26% | +2 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 24% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 24% | — |
Nuggets vs Bulls odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Nuggets at 75%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 75%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DEN | CHI | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 75% | 25% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 75% | 25% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Denver Nuggets vs Chicago Bulls prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Nuggets a 6-point favorite, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 232. Ratings: Bulls 1328 (24th of 30), Nuggets 1583 (10th). The Bulls are 1-8 in the Central; the Nuggets are 5-4 in the Northwest. The Bulls have won 0 of their last 5; the Nuggets 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulls won 3, the Nuggets 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Denver Nuggets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Houston Rockets | L 100–110 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Indiana Pacers | W 114–102 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toronto Raptors | W 128–109 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Portland Trail Blazers | L 110–118 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Phoenix Suns | W 127–120 | – | – | matchup |
Chicago Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Philadelphia 76ers | L 121–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New York Knicks | L 105–135 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Philadelphia 76ers | L 107–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Boston Celtics | L 111–125 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs New York Knicks | L 127–133 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets | 128–133 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls | 136–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets | 130–127 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets | 117–124 | – | – | matchup | |
| Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets | 129–119 | – | – | matchup | |
| Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls | 121–129 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Denver Nuggets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Chicago Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Nuggets5-4 Northwest, 2nd · L1
- Nuggets rating1583 10th of 30, 9 games
- Bulls1-8 Central, 2nd · L7
- Bulls rating1328 24th of 30, 9 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Denver Nuggets 5-4
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 2nd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NUGGETS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Denver Nuggets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Chicago Bulls 1-8
National Basketball Association · Central · 2nd · streak L7
No stances yet today on $BULLS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Chicago Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Nuggets 75% to win. Projected score Nuggets 119, Bulls 113; spread Nuggets −6, total 232. Polymarket 75% for the Nuggets. Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls, Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET.