Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Mavericks at Jazz: Bandwagon's model makes the Mavericks a 63% favorite (Mavericks −2).
Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Mavericks a 63% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Mavericks win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 10 points: Axle has the Mavericks at 63%, Polymarket at 53%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before tip-off. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has the Mavericks
All NBA ratings| DAL | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1429 21st of 30 | 1249 30th of 30 |
| Record | 7-4 | 1-10 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W3 | L9 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | UTAH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:33 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:28 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 12:27 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 37% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | — |
Mavericks vs Jazz odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Mavericks at 53%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DAL | UTAH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 53% | 47% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 63% | 37% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Dallas Mavericks vs Utah Jazz prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Mavericks a 2-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 225.5. Ratings: Jazz 1249 (30th of 30), Mavericks 1429 (21st). The Jazz are 1-10 in the Northwest; the Mavericks are 7-4 in the Southwest. The Jazz have won 0 of their last 5; the Mavericks 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Jazz won 2, the Mavericks 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Dallas Mavericks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Indiana Pacers | W 125–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brooklyn Nets | W 130–93 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Jazz | W 112–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 111–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento Kings | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup |
Utah Jazz
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Miami Heat | L 109–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Timberwolves | L 100–115 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dallas Mavericks | L 100–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| at New Orleans Pelicans | L 113–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Antonio Spurs | L 97–119 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | 100–112 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | 120–138 | – | – | matchup | |
| Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks | 122–144 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz | 114–116 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz | 133–140 | – | – | matchup | |
| Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz | 114–101 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Dallas Mavericks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Utah Jazz: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mavericks7-4 Southwest, 2nd · W3
- Mavericks rating1429 21st of 30, 11 games
- Jazz1-10 Northwest, 1st · L9
- Jazz rating1249 30th of 30, 10 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Dallas Mavericks 7-4
National Basketball Association · Southwest · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $MAVERICKS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Dallas Mavericks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Utah Jazz 1-10
National Basketball Association · Northwest · 1st · streak L9
No stances yet today on $JAZZ: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Utah Jazz bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Mavericks 63% to win. Projected score Mavericks 114, Jazz 112; spread Mavericks −2, total 225.5. Polymarket 53% for the Mavericks. Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz, Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET.