Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Magic at Wizards: Bandwagon's model makes the Magic a 63% favorite (Magic −2.5).
Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards model odds and win probability
Axle gives the Magic a 63% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every NBA marketEach bar is the chance that the Magic win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 16 points: Axle has the Magic at 63%, Polymarket at 47%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has the Magic
All NBA ratings| ORL | WSH | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1479 17th of 30 | 1295 28th of 30 |
| Record | 3-7 | 4-7 |
| Last 5 games | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L4 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage, schedule and recent form; record, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WSH win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 1:32 AM ET | 37% | +1 |
| Nov 11, 12:32 AM ET | 36% | −2 |
| Nov 10, 11:47 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:53 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:58 PM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:48 PM ET | 38% | −1 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 39% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 39% | — |
Magic vs Wizards odds on Polymarket
Every NBA marketPolymarket prices the Magic at 47%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ORL | WSH | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47% | 53% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 63% | 37% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Orlando Magic vs Washington Wizards prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Magic a 2.5-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 223. Ratings: Wizards 1295 (28th of 30), Magic 1479 (17th). The Wizards are 4-7 in the Southeast; the Magic are 3-7 in the Southeast. The Wizards have won 1 of their last 5; the Magic 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Wizards won 2, the Magic 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Orlando Magic
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sacramento Kings | W 107–100 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Golden State Warriors | L 119–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Phoenix Suns | L 104–117 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Wizards | L 94–103 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston Celtics | L 97–108 | – | – | matchup |
Washington Wizards
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Detroit Pistons | L 111–122 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Oklahoma City Thunder | L 75–114 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlanta Hawks | L 132–139 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlanta Hawks | L 105–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Orlando Magic | W 103–94 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic | 103–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic | 131–136 | – | – | matchup | |
| Washington Wizards at Orlando Magic | 109–126 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards | 112–120 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards | 125–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards | 109–97 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Orlando Magic: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Washington Wizards: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Magic3-7 Southeast, 1st · W1
- Magic rating1479 17th of 30, 9 games
- Wizards4-7 Southeast, 3rd · L4
- Wizards rating1295 28th of 30, 11 games
More NBA games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Orlando Magic 3-7
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MAGIC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Orlando Magic bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
National Basketball Association · Southeast · 3rd · streak L4
No stances yet today on $WIZARDS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Washington Wizards bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In National Basketball Association a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past National Basketball Association seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:32 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Magic 63% to win. Projected score Magic 113, Wizards 110; spread Magic −2.5, total 223. Polymarket 47% for the Magic. Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, Sun, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ET.