Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC: Bandwagon's model makes Seattle Sounders FC a 48% favorite (Seattle Sounders FC −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 49%.
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC model odds and win probability
Axle gives Seattle Sounders FC a 48% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every MLS marketEach bar is the chance that Seattle Sounders FC win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 48%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Polymarket has Seattle Sounders FC at 50%, Axle at 48%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Seattle Sounders FC
All MLS ratings| RSL | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1477 20th of 30 | 1490 17th of 30 |
| Record | 13-15-6 | 12-12-10 |
| Last 5 games | 4-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SEA win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:05 AM ET | 48% | — |
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every MLS marketKalshi prices Seattle Sounders FC at 49%, Polymarket at 50% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 48%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | RSL | Draw | SEA | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 27% | 24% | 49% | ||
| Polymarket | 26% | 24% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 26% | 26% | 48% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Real Salt Lake vs Seattle Sounders FC prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Seattle Sounders FC a 0.5-point favorite at home, with a 48% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Seattle Sounders FC 1490 (17th of 30), Real Salt Lake 1477 (20th). The Seattle Sounders FC are 12-12-10; the Real Salt Lake are 13-15-6. The Seattle Sounders FC have won 1 of their last 5; the Real Salt Lake 4 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Seattle Sounders FC won 2, the Real Salt Lake 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Real Salt Lake
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LA Galaxy | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Jose Earthquakes | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Austin FC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Louis CITY SC | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sporting Kansas City | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup |
Seattle Sounders FC
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs LAFC | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vancouver Whitecaps | L 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Houston Dynamo FC | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego FC | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs CF Montréal | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at Real Salt Lake | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at Real Salt Lake | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Seattle Sounders FC at Real Salt Lake | 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Real Salt Lake: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Seattle Sounders FC: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Real Salt Lake13-15-6 9th
- Real Salt Lake rating1477 20th of 30, 34 games
- Seattle Sounders FC12-12-10 8th
- Seattle Sounders FC rating1490 17th of 30, 34 games
More MLS games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Real Salt Lake 13-15-6
Major League Soccer · 9th
No stances yet today on $SALTLAKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Real Salt Lake bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Seattle Sounders FC 12-12-10
Major League Soccer · 8th
No stances yet today on $SEATTLE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Seattle Sounders FC bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Major League Soccer a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:35 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Seattle Sounders FC 48% to win, draw 26%. Projected score Seattle Sounders FC 1.7, Real Salt Lake 1.3; spread Seattle Sounders FC −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 49%, Polymarket 50% for Seattle Sounders FC. Real Salt Lake at Seattle Sounders FC, Thu, Nov 19, 10:00 PM ET.