Stade Rennais vs Lorient prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Stade Rennais at Lorient: Bandwagon's model makes Lorient a 38% favorite (even); Kalshi prices them at 34%.
Stade Rennais vs Lorient model odds and win probability
Axle gives Lorient a 38% chance to win, with a 26% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Lorient win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 38%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Axle has Lorient at 38%, Kalshi at 34%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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Why Axle has Lorient
All Ligue 1 ratings| REN | LOR | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1478 8th of 18 | 1434 13th of 18 |
| Record | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-1-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 6 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | LOR win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 38% | — |
Stade Rennais vs Lorient odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Lorient at 34%, Polymarket at 34%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 38%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | REN | Draw | LOR | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 27% | 34% | ||
| Polymarket | 39% | 27% | 34% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 36% | 26% | 38% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Stade Rennais vs Lorient prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lorient the favorite, with a 38% chance to win and a 26% chance of a draw; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 3. Ratings: Lorient 1434 (13th of 18), Stade Rennais 1478 (8th). The Lorient are 4-3-3; the Stade Rennais are 5-4-1. The Lorient have won 3 of their last 5; the Stade Rennais 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Lorient won 6, the Stade Rennais 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Stade Rennais
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Lille | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nice | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Strasbourg | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Paris FC | L 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AJ Auxerre | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup |
Lorient
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient at Stade Rennais | 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lorient | 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lorient at Stade Rennais | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lorient | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Stade Rennais at Lorient | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Lorient at Stade Rennais | 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Stade Rennais: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Lorient: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Stade Rennais5-4-1 8th
- Stade Rennais rating1478 8th of 18, 10 games
- Lorient4-3-3 10th
- Lorient rating1434 13th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Stade Rennais 5-4-1
Ligue 1 · 8th
No stances yet today on $RENNES: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Stade Rennais bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Lorient 4-3-3
Ligue 1 · 10th
No stances yet today on $LORIENT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Lorient bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Stade Rennais at Lorient
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Lorient 38% to win, draw 26%. Projected score level, 1.5 each; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 34%, Polymarket 34% for Lorient. Stade Rennais at Lorient, Sun, Nov 22, 11:15 AM ET.