Paris Saint-Germain vs Nice prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Paris Saint-Germain at Nice: Bandwagon's model makes Paris Saint-Germain a 59% favorite (Paris Saint-Germain −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 68%.
Paris Saint-Germain vs Nice model odds and win probability
Axle gives Paris Saint-Germain a 59% chance to win, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Ligue 1 marketEach bar is the chance that Paris Saint-Germain win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 59%.
The largest gap is 9 points: Kalshi has Paris Saint-Germain at 68%, Axle at 59%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Paris Saint-Germain
All Ligue 1 ratings| PSG | NICE | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1645 1st of 18 | 1440 11th of 18 |
| Record | 7-1-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Last 5 games | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NICE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 19% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:14 PM ET | 19% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 10:53 AM ET | 18% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 18% | — |
Paris Saint-Germain vs Nice odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Ligue 1 marketKalshi prices Paris Saint-Germain at 68%, Polymarket at 68%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 59%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | PSG | Draw | NICE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 68% | 17% | 15% | ||
| Polymarket | 68% | 18% | 14% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 59% | 22% | 19% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Paris Saint-Germain vs Nice prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Paris Saint-Germain a 0.5-point favorite, with a 59% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Nice 1440 (11th of 18), Paris Saint-Germain 1645 (1st). The Nice are 5-3-2; the Paris Saint-Germain are 7-1-2. The Nice have won 4 of their last 5; the Paris Saint-Germain 5 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Nice won 2, the Paris Saint-Germain 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Paris Saint-Germain
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Troyes | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Villarreal | W 6–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Le Havre AC | W 5–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lyon | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Barcelona | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup |
Nice
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Angers | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stade Rennais | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Brest | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lyon | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Strasbourg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris Saint-Germain at Nice | 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nice at Paris Saint-Germain | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nice at Paris Saint-Germain | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Paris Saint-Germain at Nice | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Paris Saint-Germain at Nice | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Nice at Paris Saint-Germain | 3–2 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Paris Saint-Germain: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Nice: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Paris Saint-Germain7-1-2 1st
- Paris Saint-Germain rating1645 1st of 18, 10 games
- Nice5-3-2 6th
- Nice rating1440 11th of 18, 10 games
More Ligue 1 games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Paris Saint-Germain 7-1-2
Ligue 1 · 1st
No stances yet today on $PSG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Paris Saint-Germain bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Nice 5-3-2
Ligue 1 · 6th
No stances yet today on $NICE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Nice bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Paris Saint-Germain at Nice
Sign in to post a take on $PSGNICE261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Ligue 1 a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:34 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Paris Saint-Germain 59% to win, draw 22%. Projected score Paris Saint-Germain 1.9, Nice 1.1; spread Paris Saint-Germain −0.5, total 3. Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 68% for Paris Saint-Germain. Paris Saint-Germain at Nice, Sat, Nov 21, 11:15 AM ET.