Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Sunderland at Aston Villa: Bandwagon's model makes Aston Villa a 57% favorite (Aston Villa −1); Kalshi prices them at 56%.
Sunderland vs Aston Villa model odds and win probability
Axle gives Aston Villa a 57% chance to win, with a 24% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every EPL marketEach bar is the chance that Aston Villa win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 57%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Axle has Aston Villa at 57%, Kalshi at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Aston Villa
All EPL ratings| SUN | AVL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1385 17th of 20 | 1480 6th of 20 |
| Record | 2-6-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Last 5 games | 1-3-1 | 2-1-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | AVL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:33 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 57% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 59% | — |
Sunderland vs Aston Villa odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Premier League marketKalshi prices Aston Villa at 56%, Polymarket at 56%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 57%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SUN | Draw | AVL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 20% | 24% | 56% | ||
| Polymarket | 20% | 24% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 19% | 24% | 57% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Sunderland vs Aston Villa prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Aston Villa a 1-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance to win and a 24% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Aston Villa 1480 (6th of 20), Sunderland 1385 (17th). The Aston Villa are 3-3-4; the Sunderland are 2-6-2. The Aston Villa have won 2 of their last 5; the Sunderland 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Aston Villa won 1, the Sunderland 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Sunderland
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Chelsea | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coventry City | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Leeds United | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AFC Bournemouth | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Brighton & Hove Albion | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Aston Villa
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Manchester United | T 4–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Barcelona | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fulham | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester City | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Newcastle United | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunderland at Aston Villa | 3–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| Aston Villa at Sunderland | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Sunderland: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Aston Villa: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Sunderland2-6-2 19th
- Sunderland rating1385 17th of 20, 10 games
- Aston Villa3-3-4 10th
- Aston Villa rating1480 6th of 20, 10 games
More EPL games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Sunderland 2-6-2
Premier League · 19th
No stances yet today on $SUNDERLAND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sunderland bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Aston Villa 3-3-4
Premier League · 10th
No stances yet today on $ASTONVILLA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Aston Villa bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Sunderland at Aston Villa
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Premier League a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Aston Villa 57% to win, draw 24%. Projected score Aston Villa 1.9, Sunderland 1.1; spread Aston Villa −1, total 3. Kalshi 56%, Polymarket 56% for Aston Villa. Sunderland at Aston Villa, Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 AM ET.