USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerIndiana 81%
- Projected scoreIndiana 33, USC 18
- Model spreadIndiana −14.5 total 51
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
USC Trojans or Indiana Hoosiers: the bandwagon
Axle 19–81Market 32–68
USC Trojans at Indiana Hoosiers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | USC | IU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USC– | IU– |
| Average win probability | USC– | IU– |
| Longest scoring run | USC– | IU– |
| Time leading | USC– | IU– |
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | IU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:14 PM ET | 81% | −5 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:26 PM ET | 86% | +1 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 85% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 88% | — |
- Ratings
- IU 1834 · USC 1683
- Home spread
- −14.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
USC vs Indiana odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Hoosiers at 69%, Polymarket at 68% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 81%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USC | IU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 31% | 69% | ||
| Polymarket | 32% | 68% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 19% | 81% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
USC Trojans vs Indiana Hoosiers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Hoosiers a 14.5-point favorite at home, with a 81% chance to win. The model total is 51. Ratings: Hoosiers 1834 (1st of 138), Trojans 1683 (17th). The Hoosiers have won 4 of their last 5; the Trojans 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
USC Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | W 30–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wisconsin Badgers | L 7–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Penn State Nittany Lions | W 31–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Washington Huskies | W 25–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Oregon Ducks | L 27–41 | – | – | matchup |
Indiana Hoosiers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Minnesota Golden Gophers | W 23–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | W 13–6 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ohio State Buckeyes | L 15–19 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 47–15 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
USC Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Indiana Hoosiers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans– 3rd · W1
- Trojans rating1683 17th of 138, 9 games
- Hoosiers– 2nd · W2
- Hoosiers rating1834 1st of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak W1
No stances yet today on $USC: the share of the crowd ▲ on the USC Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $IU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Indiana Hoosiers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Indiana 81% to win. Projected score Indiana 33, USC 18; spread Indiana −14.5, total 51. Kalshi 69%, Polymarket 68% for Indiana. USC Trojans at Indiana Hoosiers, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET.