Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerLouisiana Tech 86%
- Projected scoreLouisiana Tech 36, Southern Miss 18
- Model spreadLouisiana Tech −17.5 total 53.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Southern Miss Golden Eagles or Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: the bandwagon
Axle 14–86Market 15–85
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | USM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Score | USM– | LT– |
| Average win probability | USM– | LT– |
| Longest scoring run | USM– | LT– |
| Time leading | USM– | LT– |
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | LT win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:09 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:56 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:26 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:06 PM ET | 86% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 88% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:26 PM ET | 88% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 86% | −3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 89% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 89% | — |
- Ratings
- LT 1546 · USM 1348
- Home spread
- −17.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Southern Miss vs Louisiana Tech odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bulldogs at 89%, Polymarket at 81% (8 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 86%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | USM | LT | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 11% | 89% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 19% | 81% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 14% | 86% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Southern Miss Golden Eagles vs Louisiana Tech Bulldogs prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bulldogs a 17.5-point favorite at home, with a 86% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Bulldogs 1546 (56th of 138), Golden Eagles 1348 (122nd). The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 5; the Golden Eagles 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bulldogs won 1, the Golden Eagles 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 35–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 35–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arkansas State Red Wolves | L 13–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Troy Trojans | L 34–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 21–24 | – | – | matchup |
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at South Alabama Jaguars | W 35–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | W 26–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UL Monroe Warhawks | W 24–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Army Black Knights | W 31–29 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 20–30 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Southern Miss Golden Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Golden Eagles– Sun Belt - West, 6th · W2
- Golden Eagles rating1348 122nd of 138, 7 games
- Bulldogs– Sun Belt - West, 1st · W5
- Bulldogs rating1546 56th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 6th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $USM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Southern Miss Golden Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 1st · streak W5
No stances yet today on $LT: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Louisiana Tech Bulldogs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
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Model: Louisiana Tech 86% to win. Projected score Louisiana Tech 36, Southern Miss 18; spread Louisiana Tech −17.5, total 53.5. Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 81% for Louisiana Tech. Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM ET.