SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerNotre Dame 80%
- Projected scoreNotre Dame 34, SMU 20
- Model spreadNotre Dame −13.5 total 54.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
SMU Mustangs or Notre Dame Fighting Irish: the bandwagon
Axle 20–80Market –
SMU Mustangs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | SMU | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Score | SMU– | ND– |
| Average win probability | SMU– | ND– |
| Longest scoring run | SMU– | ND– |
| Time leading | SMU– | ND– |
SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ND win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 80% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 80% | — |
- Ratings
- ND 1782 · SMU 1643
- Home spread
- −13.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
SMU Mustangs vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fighting Irish a 13.5-point favorite at home, with a 80% chance to win. The model total is 54.5. Ratings: Fighting Irish 1782 (5th of 138), Mustangs 1643 (23rd). The Fighting Irish have won 4 of their last 5; the Mustangs 4 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
SMU Mustangs
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Syracuse Orange | L 27–30 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs California Golden Bears | W 59–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Virginia Cavaliers | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Boston College Eagles | W 25–16 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Missouri State Bears | W 34–24 | – | – | matchup |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Navy Midshipmen | W 35–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 58–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Carolina Tar Heels | W 37–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 49–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
SMU Mustangs: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mustangs– 3rd · L1
- Mustangs rating1643 23rd of 138, 7 games
- Fighting Irish– 1st · W1
- Fighting Irish rating1782 5th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 3rd · streak L1
No stances yet today on $SMU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SMU Mustangs bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Notre Dame 80% to win. Projected score Notre Dame 34, SMU 20; spread Notre Dame −13.5, total 54.5. SMU Mustangs at Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Sat, Nov 21, 7:30 PM ET.