Navy and Notre Dame are 0-0 with 13:45 left in the first. The model has Navy at 11 percent, so the numbers lean toward the Irish right now.
FBS · · every NCAA Division I FBS football line
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen: final score and how the prediction did, October 31, 2026
- Final scoreNotre Dame 35, Navy 13 the projected winner won
- Pregame Projected winnerNotre Dame 89%
- Pregame Projected scoreNotre Dame 38, Navy 18
- Model spreadNotre Dame −20 total 55
- Margin22 projected 20
- Total48 projected 55
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Notre Dame Fighting Irish or Navy Midshipmen: the bandwagon
Axle 89–11Market 98–2
FinalPregame: NAVY 11%Baseline: NAVY 10.1% (−1.3)Big swing: 17.1 ptsClutch window: none
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ND | 7 | 7 | 14 | 7 | 35 |
| NAVY | 3 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
Game clock
Final
Down & distance
Final
Possession
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Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable+0.0 points for NAVY over the last 5:00
Big swing17.1 ptstoward NAVY at 28:08 of game time
Clutch windowNonenever within 8 points in the final quarter
BaselineNAVY 10.1%game average, −1.3 points from the pregame 11.4%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | ND | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | ND426 | NAVY245 |
| First downs | ND25 | NAVY15 |
| 3rd down | ND3/8 | NAVY4/12 |
| 4th down | ND2/3 | NAVY2/3 |
| Turnovers | ND0 | NAVY0 |
| Penalties-yards | ND2-25 | NAVY8-86 |
| Time of possession | ND27:20 | NAVY32:40 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | ND | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ND35 | NAVY13 |
| Average win probability | ND90% | NAVY10% |
| Longest scoring run | ND+35 | NAVY+16 |
| Time leading | ND45:19 | NAVY6:00 |
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen model odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET
Fighting Irish89%
Win chanceMidshipmen11%
SpreadND −20closing model spread
Total55
Moneyline−774away / +774homeaway / home
Line movementNAVY win chance, 14 stored lines
−1 pts for NAVY between Oct 28 and Oct 31
18%6%
Oct 28Oct 30Oct 31
Every stored line
| Stored | NAVY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 11% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 11% | −1 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 12% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 12% | — |
- Ratings
- NAVY 1482 · ND 1771
- Home spread
- +20 · neutral site, no home advantage
- Stored
- Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET · 2026-10-31 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Notre Dame Fighting Irish 35, Navy Midshipmen 13. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Neutral siteforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Who ya got · 1 pick
Be the first on the bandwagon
Fighting IrishMidshipmen
Neutrals only–
Fighting IrishMidshipmen
Picks locked at kickoff.Bandwagon minus model, Midshipmen–
1 pick so far; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Notre Dame vs Navy odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi had Fighting Irish at 98% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 98% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 89% when last read, .
| Source | ND | NAVY | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 98% | 2% | · closing price | |
| Polymarket | 98% | 2% | · closing price | |
| Bandwagon model | 89% | 11% | · model 2.0 |
Kalshi minus model, NAVY: −9Polymarket minus model, NAVY: −9
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Navy Midshipmen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Fighting Irish a 20-point favorite, with a 89% chance to win. The model total is 55. Ratings: Midshipmen 1471 (78th of 138), Fighting Irish 1782 (5th). The Midshipmen have won 1 of their last 5; the Fighting Irish 4 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Midshipmen won 0, the Fighting Irish 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Navy Midshipmen | W 35–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stanford Cardinal | W 58–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| at North Carolina Tar Heels | W 37–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 49–10 | – | – | matchup |
Navy Midshipmen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 13–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Texas Mean Green | L 39–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 34–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Air Force Falcons | L 9–14 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 10–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen | 51–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| Navy Midshipmen at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 3–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen | 35–32 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Notre Dame Fighting Irish: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Navy Midshipmen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Fighting Irish– 1st · W1
- Fighting Irish rating1782 5th of 138, 8 games
- Midshipmen– 12th · L3
- Midshipmen rating1471 78th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W1
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $ND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $ND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $ND
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $ND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L3
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $NAVY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $NAVY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $NAVY
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
No stances yet today on $NAVY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Navy Midshipmen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Navy Midshipmen
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Final: Notre Dame 35, Navy 13. Bandwagon's model had the Notre Dame at 89% and projected Notre Dame 38, Navy 18; spread Notre Dame −20, total 55. Last read: Kalshi 98%, Polymarket 98% for Notre Dame.