Missouri State Bears vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerJacksonville State 85%
- Projected scoreJacksonville State 34, Missouri State 17
- Model spreadJacksonville State −17.5 total 51.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Missouri State Bears or Jacksonville State Gamecocks: the bandwagon
Axle 15–85Market –
Missouri State Bears at Jacksonville State Gamecocks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Missouri State Bears vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Missouri State Bears vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MOST | JXST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MOST– | JXST– |
| Average win probability | MOST– | JXST– |
| Longest scoring run | MOST– | JXST– |
| Time leading | MOST– | JXST– |
Missouri State Bears vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks odds
Every stored line
| Stored | JXST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 85% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 85% | — |
- Ratings
- JXST 1555 · MOST 1362
- Home spread
- −17.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Missouri State Bears vs Jacksonville State Gamecocks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Gamecocks a 17.5-point favorite at home, with a 85% chance to win. The model total is 51.5. Ratings: Gamecocks 1555 (52nd of 138), Bears 1362 (116th). The Gamecocks have won 5 of their last 5; the Bears 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Missouri State Bears
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sam Houston Bearkats | W 24–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware Blue Hens | L 38–61 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 24–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers | L 13–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SMU Mustangs | L 24–34 | – | – | matchup |
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at New Mexico State Aggies | W 24–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida International Panthers | W 27–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kennesaw State Owls | W 27–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 31–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Missouri State Bears: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Jacksonville State Gamecocks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bears– 7th · W1
- Bears rating1362 116th of 138, 7 games
- Gamecocks– 2nd · W5
- Gamecocks rating1555 52nd of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 7th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MOST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Missouri State Bears bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W5
No stances yet today on $JXST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Jacksonville State Gamecocks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Missouri State Bears at Jacksonville State Gamecocks
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Model: Jacksonville State 85% to win. Projected score Jacksonville State 34, Missouri State 17; spread Jacksonville State −17.5, total 51.5. Missouri State Bears at Jacksonville State Gamecocks, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.