Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerOregon 72%
- Projected scoreOregon 29, Michigan 19
- Model spreadOregon −9 total 48
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Michigan Wolverines or Oregon Ducks: the bandwagon
Axle 28–72Market 32–68
Michigan Wolverines at Oregon Ducks win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MICH | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MICH– | ORE– |
| Average win probability | MICH– | ORE– |
| Longest scoring run | MICH– | ORE– |
| Time leading | MICH– | ORE– |
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ORE win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 72% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:01 PM ET | 72% | +3 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 71% | −2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 73% | — |
- Ratings
- ORE 1697 · MICH 1620
- Home spread
- −9
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Michigan vs Oregon odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Ducks at 68%, Polymarket at 68%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 72%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | MICH | ORE | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 32% | 68% | ||
| Polymarket | 32% | 68% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 28% | 72% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Ducks a 9-point favorite at home, with a 72% chance to win. The model total is 48. Ratings: Ducks 1697 (12th of 138), Wolverines 1620 (29th). The Ducks have won 3 of their last 5; the Wolverines 2 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Ducks won 1, the Wolverines 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Michigan Wolverines
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Rutgers Scarlet Knights | W 28–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana Hoosiers | L 6–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Penn State Nittany Lions | W 21–18 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Minnesota Golden Gophers | L 14–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Iowa Hawkeyes | L 19–20 | – | – | matchup |
Oregon Ducks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Northwestern Wildcats | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Illinois Fighting Illini | L 10–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nebraska Cornhuskers | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UCLA Bruins | L 15–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at USC Trojans | W 41–27 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks at Michigan Wolverines | 38–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Michigan Wolverines: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Oregon Ducks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Wolverines– 12th · W1
- Wolverines rating1620 29th of 138, 8 games
- Ducks– 9th · W1
- Ducks rating1697 12th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MICH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Michigan Wolverines bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ORE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Oregon Ducks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Michigan Wolverines at Oregon Ducks
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Model: Oregon 72% to win. Projected score Oregon 29, Michigan 19; spread Oregon −9, total 48. Kalshi 68%, Polymarket 68% for Oregon. Michigan Wolverines at Oregon Ducks, Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ET.