Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
- Projected winnerMemphis 63%
- Projected scoreMemphis 31, Navy 26
- Model spreadMemphis −5 total 56.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Memphis Tigers or Navy Midshipmen: the bandwagon
Axle 63–37Market –
Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | MEM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Score | MEM– | NAVY– |
| Average win probability | MEM– | NAVY– |
| Longest scoring run | MEM– | NAVY– |
| Time leading | MEM– | NAVY– |
Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen odds
Every stored line
| Stored | NAVY win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 37% | — |
- Ratings
- NAVY 1471 · MEM 1600
- Home spread
- +5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tigers a 5-point favorite, with a 63% chance to win. The model total is 56.5. Ratings: Midshipmen 1471 (78th of 138), Tigers 1600 (33rd). The Midshipmen have won 1 of their last 5; the Tigers 4 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Midshipmen won 2, the Tigers 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Memphis Tigers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Army Black Knights | W 49–22 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Carolina Pirates | W 41–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulane Green Wave | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAB Blazers | W 38–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Charlotte 49ers | W 59–8 | – | – | matchup |
Navy Midshipmen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 13–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs North Texas Mean Green | L 39–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UTSA Roadrunners | L 34–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 34–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Air Force Falcons | L 9–14 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers | 28–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen | 44–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| Navy Midshipmen at Memphis Tigers | 24–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Memphis Tigers at Navy Midshipmen | 37–13 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Memphis Tigers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Navy Midshipmen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Tigers– 2nd · W2
- Tigers rating1600 33rd of 138, 8 games
- Midshipmen– 12th · L3
- Midshipmen rating1471 78th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $MEM: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Memphis Tigers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 12th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $NAVY: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Navy Midshipmen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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