Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerIowa State 61%
- Projected scoreIowa State 31, Cincinnati 26
- Model spreadIowa State −4 total 57
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Cincinnati Bearcats or Iowa State Cyclones: the bandwagon
Axle 39–61Market 50–50
Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | CIN | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | CIN– | ISU– |
| Average win probability | CIN– | ISU– |
| Longest scoring run | CIN– | ISU– |
| Time leading | CIN– | ISU– |
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | ISU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:59 AM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 61% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 61% | +2 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 59% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:16 PM ET | 59% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 55% | +3 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 52% | −1 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 53% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 53% | — |
- Ratings
- ISU 1527 · CIN 1521
- Home spread
- −4
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · No venue coordinates stored for the home sidedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Cincinnati vs Iowa State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Cyclones at 50%, Polymarket at 50%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 61%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | CIN | ISU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 50% | 50% | ||
| Polymarket | 50% | 50% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 39% | 61% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Iowa State Cyclones prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Cyclones a 4-point favorite at home, with a 61% chance to win. The model total is 57. Ratings: Cyclones 1527 (61st of 138), Bearcats 1521 (63rd). The Cyclones have won 2 of their last 5; the Bearcats 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Cyclones won 2, the Bearcats 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Cincinnati Bearcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Utah Utes | L 25–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas Tech Red Raiders | W 37–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| at West Virginia Mountaineers | L 42–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 7–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kansas State Wildcats | W 31–26 | – | – | matchup |
Iowa State Cyclones
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma State Cowboys | W 51–49 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Arizona Wildcats | L 3–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 10–24 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs West Virginia Mountaineers | W 45–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Utah Utes | L 17–31 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats | 30–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones | 17–34 | – | – | matchup | |
| Iowa State Cyclones at Cincinnati Bearcats | 30–10 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Cincinnati Bearcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Iowa State Cyclones: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bearcats– 9th · L1
- Bearcats rating1521 63rd of 138, 7 games
- Cyclones– 10th · W1
- Cyclones rating1527 61st of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $CIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Cincinnati Bearcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 10th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $ISU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Iowa State Cyclones bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones
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Model: Iowa State 61% to win. Projected score Iowa State 31, Cincinnati 26; spread Iowa State −4, total 57. Kalshi 50%, Polymarket 50% for Iowa State. Cincinnati Bearcats at Iowa State Cyclones, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET.