Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets prediction, odds and picks, November 20, 2026
- Projected winnerToledo 87%
- Projected scoreToledo 36, Bowling Green 17
- Model spreadToledo −19 total 53.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bowling Green Falcons or Toledo Rockets: the bandwagon
Axle 13–87Market –
Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BGSU | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BGSU– | TOL– |
| Average win probability | BGSU– | TOL– |
| Longest scoring run | BGSU– | TOL– |
| Time leading | BGSU– | TOL– |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets odds
Every stored line
| Stored | TOL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 87% | — |
- Ratings
- TOL 1566 · BGSU 1351
- Home spread
- −19
- Stored
- Nov 4, 10:26 PM ET · 2026-11-05 03:26 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
- Last move
- spread −18.5 → −19, total 54 → 53.5
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · No forecast stored before kickoffforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bowling Green Falcons vs Toledo Rockets prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Rockets a 19-point favorite at home, with a 87% chance to win. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Rockets 1559 (49th of 138), Falcons 1351 (121st). The Rockets have won 4 of their last 5; the Falcons 2 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Rockets won 1, the Falcons 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Western Michigan Broncos | L 10–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Buffalo Bulls | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Ball State Cardinals | L 31–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 38–10 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Miami (OH) RedHawks | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup |
Toledo Rockets
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Sacramento State Hornets | W 20–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | W 45–38 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 34–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Buffalo Bulls | L 8–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ball State Cardinals | W 39–24 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo Rockets at Bowling Green Falcons | 23–28 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets | 41–26 | – | – | matchup | |
| Toledo Rockets at Bowling Green Falcons | 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets | 42–35 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Toledo Rockets: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons– 11th · L3
- Falcons rating1351 121st of 138, 8 games
- Rockets– 2nd · W2
- Rockets rating1559 49th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 11th · streak L3
No stances yet today on $BGSU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bowling Green Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 2nd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $TOL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Toledo Rockets bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: Toledo 87% to win. Projected score Toledo 36, Bowling Green 17; spread Toledo −19, total 53.5. Bowling Green Falcons at Toledo Rockets, Fri, Nov 20, 7:30 PM ET.