Ball State Cardinals vs Ohio Bobcats prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnerOhio 92%
- Projected scoreOhio 39, Ball State 15
- Model spreadOhio −24 total 54
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Ball State Cardinals or Ohio Bobcats: the bandwagon
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Axle 8–92Market 14–86
Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Ball State Cardinals vs Ohio Bobcats live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Ball State Cardinals vs Ohio Bobcats team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | BALL | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BALL– | OHIO– |
| Average win probability | BALL– | OHIO– |
| Longest scoring run | BALL– | OHIO– |
| Time leading | BALL– | OHIO– |
Ball State Cardinals vs Ohio Bobcats model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | OHIO win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:31 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 92% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 92% | — |
- Ratings
- OHIO 1592 · BALL 1302
- Home spread
- −24
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Ball State vs Ohio odds on Kalshi
Every College football marketKalshi prices Bobcats at 86%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 92%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Axle 2.0 .
| Source | BALL | OHIO | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 14% | 86% | · not de-vigged | |
| Bandwagon model | 8% | 92% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Ball State Cardinals vs Ohio Bobcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bobcats a 24-point favorite at home, with a 92% chance to win. The model total is 54. Ratings: Bobcats 1592 (35th of 138), Cardinals 1302 (128th). The Bobcats have won 5 of their last 5; the Cardinals 2 of their last 5. The two have met 3 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bobcats won 2, the Cardinals 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Ball State Cardinals
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 34–17 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bowling Green Falcons | W 32–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Northwestern Wildcats | L 14–45 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Toledo Rockets | L 24–39 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kent State Golden Flashes | L 13–26 | – | – | matchup |
Ohio Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Akron Zips | W 28–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 24–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Sacramento State Hornets | W 48–7 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Central Michigan Chippewas | W 31–14 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kent State Golden Flashes | W 13–10 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Bobcats at Ball State Cardinals | 14–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats | 21–42 | – | – | matchup | |
| Ohio Bobcats at Ball State Cardinals | 32–18 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Ball State Cardinals: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ohio Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cardinals– 8th · W2
- Cardinals rating1302 128th of 138, 7 games
- Bobcats– 1st · W6
- Bobcats rating1592 35th of 138, 8 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · 8th · streak W2
1 stance today on $BALL: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ball State Cardinals bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · 1st · streak W6
No stances yet today on $OHIO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ohio Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats
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Model: Ohio 92% to win. Projected score Ohio 39, Ball State 15; spread Ohio −24, total 54. Kalshi 86% for Ohio. Ball State Cardinals at Ohio Bobcats, Tue, Nov 17, 7:00 PM ET.