Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
- Projected winnereven
- Projected scoreCoastal Carolina 27, Arkansas State 27
- Model spreadeven total 53.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Arkansas State Red Wolves or Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: the bandwagon
Axle 50–50Market 43–57
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | ARST | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Score | ARST– | CCU– |
| Average win probability | ARST– | CCU– |
| Longest scoring run | ARST– | CCU– |
| Time leading | ARST– | CCU– |
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers model odds
Every stored line
| Stored | CCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:55 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 1:14 AM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:34 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:24 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 11:04 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:51 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 10:11 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 8:11 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:31 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 7:21 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:46 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:11 PM ET | 50% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 5:41 PM ET | 50% | +7 |
| Oct 31, 4:41 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:46 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:41 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:21 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:16 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 3:11 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 31, 2:21 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:06 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 11:01 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 11:31 PM ET | 43% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:26 PM ET | 43% | +2 |
| Oct 29, 6:43 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 12:50 AM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 11:19 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:51 PM ET | 41% | 0 |
| Oct 28, 10:50 PM ET | 41% | — |
- Ratings
- CCU 1391 · ARST 1447
- Home spread
- PK
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I FBS football a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:31 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 4, 8:34 PM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every College football marketKalshi prices Chanticleers at 61%, Polymarket at 52% (9 points apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 50%.
Prices read: Kalshi (not de-vigged); Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | ARST | CCU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39% | 61% | · not de-vigged | |
| Polymarket | 48% | 52% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 50% | 50% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 50% for the Chanticleers. The model total is 53.5. Ratings: Chanticleers 1391 (107th of 138), Red Wolves 1447 (84th). The Chanticleers have won 2 of their last 5; the Red Wolves 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Chanticleers won 1, the Red Wolves 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Georgia State Panthers | W 38–32 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Southern Miss Golden Eagles | W 23–13 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Alabama Jaguars | L 49–56 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 20–23 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kennesaw State Owls | W 17–14 | – | – | matchup |
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia State Panthers | W 31–20 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | L 32–35 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marshall Thundering Herd | W 27–21 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | L 24–31 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liberty Flames | L 17–34 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Arkansas State Red Wolves | 27–17 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Red Wolves– Sun Belt - West, 4th · W2
- Red Wolves rating1447 84th of 138, 7 games
- Chanticleers– Sun Belt - East, 6th · W1
- Chanticleers rating1391 107th of 138, 7 games
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - West · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $ARST: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I FBS football · Sun Belt - East · 6th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $CCU: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
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Model: even. Projected score Coastal Carolina 27, Arkansas State 27; spread even, total 53.5. Kalshi 61%, Polymarket 52% for Coastal Carolina. Arkansas State Red Wolves at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, Sat, Nov 14, 1:00 PM ET.