UMBC Retrievers vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction, odds and picks, November 19, 2026
UMBC at Ohio State: Bandwagon's model makes Ohio State a 75% favorite (Ohio State −8.5).
UMBC Retrievers vs Ohio State Buckeyes odds and win probability
Axle gives Ohio State a 75% chance to win, by about 8 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Ohio State
All CBB ratings| UMBC | OSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1532 127th of 365 | 1604 49th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | OSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:23 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 75% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 75% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:23 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:03 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:03 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:52 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:55 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:35 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 8:14 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:19 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 7:04 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:39 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 12:49 AM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:14 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 11:04 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:44 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 10:07 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:47 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 9:06 PM ET | 74% | 0 |
| Nov 6, 8:36 PM ET | 74% | +2 |
| Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET | 72% | — |
UMBC Retrievers vs Ohio State Buckeyes prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Buckeyes a 8.5-point favorite at home, with a 75% chance to win. The model total is 149. Ratings: Buckeyes 1604 (49th of 365), Retrievers 1532 (127th). The Buckeyes are 2-1; the Retrievers are 1-2. The Buckeyes have won 2 of their last 5; the Retrievers 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
UMBC Retrievers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Marist Red Foxes | L 80–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at George Mason Patriots | L 54–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Howard Bison | L 83–86 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Vermont Catamounts | W 74–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMass Lowell River Hawks | W 91–69 | – | – | matchup |
Ohio State Buckeyes
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | W 84–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Youngstown State Penguins | W 89–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| at BYU Cougars | L 83–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TCU Horned Frogs | L 64–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Michigan Wolverines | L 67–71 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
UMBC Retrievers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Ohio State Buckeyes: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Retrievers1-2 5th · W1
- Retrievers rating1532 127th of 365, 2 games
- Buckeyes2-1 14th · W2
- Buckeyes rating1604 49th of 365, 3 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
UMBC Retrievers 1-2
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $UMBCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UMBC Retrievers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 14th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $OSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Ohio State Buckeyes bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on UMBC Retrievers at Ohio State Buckeyes
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Ohio State 75% to win. Projected score Ohio State 79, UMBC 70; spread Ohio State −8.5, total 149. UMBC Retrievers at Ohio State Buckeyes, Thu, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ET.