Troy Trojans vs Valparaiso Beacons prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Troy at Valparaiso: Bandwagon's model makes Valparaiso a 57% favorite (Valparaiso −3).
Troy Trojans vs Valparaiso Beacons odds and win probability
Axle gives Valparaiso a 57% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Valparaiso
All CBB ratings| TROY | VAL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1504 166th of 365 | 1539 116th of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | VAL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 57% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 57% | −1 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 12:27 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 9:03 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | — |
Troy Trojans vs Valparaiso Beacons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Beacons a 3-point favorite, with a 57% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Beacons 1539 (116th of 365), Trojans 1504 (166th). The Beacons are 2-0; the Trojans are 1-2. The Beacons have won 3 of their last 5; the Trojans 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Troy Trojans
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Loyola Marymount Lions | W 74–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Florida State Seminoles | L 68–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | L 60–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Nebraska Cornhuskers | L 47–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Georgia Southern Eagles | W 77–61 | – | – | matchup |
Valparaiso Beacons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Purdue Boilermakers | W 83–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 80–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bradley Braves | L 84–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Indiana State Sycamores | W 63–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Evansville Purple Aces | L 79–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Troy Trojans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Valparaiso Beacons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Trojans1-2 11th · W1
- Trojans rating1504 166th of 365, 2 games
- Beacons2-0 4th · W2
- Beacons rating1539 116th of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Troy Trojans 1-2
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $TROYMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Troy Trojans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $VALMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Valparaiso Beacons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Troy Trojans at Valparaiso Beacons
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Valparaiso 57% to win. Projected score Valparaiso 75, Troy 71; spread Valparaiso −3, total 146. Troy Trojans at Valparaiso Beacons, Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM ET.