South Florida Bulls vs George Mason Patriots prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
South Florida at George Mason: Bandwagon's model makes George Mason a 58% favorite (George Mason −3.5).
South Florida Bulls vs George Mason Patriots odds and win probability
Axle gives George Mason a 58% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has George Mason
All CBB ratings| USF | GMU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1631 34th of 365 | 1576 72nd of 365 |
| Record | 1-1 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | GMU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:58 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:18 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 58% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 58% | — |
South Florida Bulls vs George Mason Patriots prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Patriots a 3.5-point favorite at home, with a 58% chance to win. The model total is 146. Ratings: Patriots 1576 (72nd of 365), Bulls 1631 (34th). The Patriots are 2-0; the Bulls are 1-1. The Patriots have won 3 of their last 5; the Bulls 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
South Florida Bulls
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at DePaul Blue Demons | L 80–82 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charleston Southern Buccaneers | W 98–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 79–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Wichita State Shockers | W 70–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Charlotte 49ers | W 86–64 | – | – | matchup |
George Mason Patriots
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Coppin State Eagles | W 68–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UMBC Retrievers | W 82–54 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Liberty Flames | L 71–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs St. Bonaventure Bonnies | L 57–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Saint Louis Billikens | W 86–57 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
South Florida Bulls: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
George Mason Patriots: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bulls1-1 9th · L1
- Bulls rating1631 34th of 365, 2 games
- Patriots2-0 7th · W2
- Patriots rating1576 72nd of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $USFMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the South Florida Bulls bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak W2
No stances yet today on $GMUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the George Mason Patriots bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on South Florida Bulls at George Mason Patriots
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: George Mason 58% to win. Projected score George Mason 75, South Florida 71; spread George Mason −3.5, total 146. South Florida Bulls at George Mason Patriots, Sat, Nov 21, 4:00 PM ET.