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Axle 2.076% straight up1147 games
NCAA Men's Basketball · · Bryce Jordan Center · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Penn State Nittany Lions: final score and how the prediction did, November 8, 2026

Pittsburgh at Penn State: Bandwagon's model made Pittsburgh a 55% favorite (even); the DraftKings closing line was Pittsburgh −2.5 with a total of 153.5, as of Nov 8, 7:57 p.m. ET.

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated

Pittsburgh Panthers or Penn State Nittany Lions: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

Be the first on the bandwagon

Panthers▲ Hop on▼ Jump off
Nittany Lions▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Axle pregame 55–45Market 57–43

FinalPregame: PSU 45%Baseline: PSU 31.1% (−13.8)Big swing: 21.6 ptsClutch window: 15:07
Pittsburgh Panthers
Record 3-0
82+4076+38
Penn State Nittany Lions
Record 2-1
Score by period
Team12T
PITT424082
PSU383876
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
–

Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions win probability

Bandwagon's model
Last update: 2nd halfFetched at
Win probability for PSU: 97 points, 45% at the start, 0% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00PSU 0%PITT 100%Market 44%
Win probability for PSU: 97 points, 45% at the start, 0% at the end.0%20%40%60%80%100%0:0020:0040:00PSU 0%PITT 100%Market 44%

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

MomentumSwinging to PITT−6.8 points for PSU over the last 5:00
Big swing21.6 ptstoward PITT at 28:20 of game time
Clutch window15:07within 5 points in the final half
BaselinePSU 31.1%game average, −13.8 points from the pregame 44.9%

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Penn State Nittany Lions live stats

Team totals read from the league's public game summary
Live team statistics
StatPITTPSU
Field goalsPITT31/63PSU21/50
3-pointersPITT5/18PSU5/15
Free throwsPITT15/22PSU29/36
ReboundsPITT28PSU37
AssistsPITT14PSU8
TurnoversPITT9PSU16
StealsPITT8PSU5
BlocksPITT2PSU0
Points in the paintPITT48PSU30
Fast-break pointsPITT13PSU9
FoulsPITT24PSU26
Largest leadPITT8PSU7

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Penn State Nittany Lions team breakdown

From the stored in-game series
Team breakdown
StatPITTPSU
ScorePITT82PSU76
Average win probabilityPITT69%PSU31%
Longest scoring runPITT+6PSU+6
Time leadingPITT29:36PSU5:37

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Penn State Nittany Lions model odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET
Panthers55%
Win chance
Nittany Lions45%
SpreadPKclosing model spread
Total149.5
Moneyline−123away / +123homeaway / home
Line movementPSU win chance, 66 stored lines
−5 pts for PSU between Oct 29 and Nov 8
68%39%
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET: PSU 50%Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET: PSU 56%Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET: PSU 56%Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET: PSU 63%Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET: PSU 63%Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET: PSU 63%Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET: PSU 60%Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET: PSU 60%Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET: PSU 60%Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET: PSU 60%Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET: PSU 60%Nov 5, 8:13 PM ET: PSU 60%Nov 5, 8:28 PM ET: PSU 59%Nov 5, 9:43 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 5, 11:16 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 5, 11:26 PM ET: PSU 61%Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 9:51 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 5:24 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 6:40 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 3:03 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET: PSU 45%Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET: PSU 45%
Oct 29Nov 3Nov 8
Every stored line
StoredPSU winMove
Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 3:03 PM ET45%0
Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET45%0
Nov 7, 11:06 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 10:27 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 10:20 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 10:05 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 9:45 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 9:26 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 9:04 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 8:04 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 6:40 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 6:10 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 5:54 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 5:24 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 4:49 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 2:29 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 2:09 PM ET45%0
Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET45%0
Nov 6, 11:44 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 11:34 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 10:40 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 10:35 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 9:51 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 9:22 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 8:56 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 6:09 PM ET45%0
Nov 6, 5:03 AM ET45%0
Nov 6, 12:54 AM ET45%−16
Nov 5, 11:26 PM ET61%0
Nov 5, 11:16 PM ET61%0
Nov 5, 10:08 PM ET61%0
Nov 5, 9:43 PM ET61%+2
Nov 5, 8:28 PM ET59%−1
Nov 5, 8:13 PM ET60%0
Nov 5, 7:33 PM ET60%0
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET60%0
Nov 4, 11:51 PM ET60%0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET60%0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET60%0
Nov 3, 12:30 AM ET60%0
Nov 2, 10:27 PM ET60%0
Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET60%−3
Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET63%0
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET63%0
Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET63%+2
Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET61%0
Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET61%0
Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET61%0
Nov 2, 1:55 PM ET61%0
Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET61%0
Nov 2, 5:25 AM ET61%0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET61%0
Nov 2, 2:05 AM ET61%0
Nov 1, 12:08 PM ET61%0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET61%+5
Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET56%0
Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET56%0
Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET56%+6
Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET50%—
Ratings
PSU 1462 · PITT 1516
Home spread
PK · neutral site, no home advantage
Stored
Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET · 2026-11-09 00:58 UTC
Version
Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Result: Pittsburgh Panthers 82, Penn State Nittany Lions 76. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

  • Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
  • Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
  • Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
  • Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

  • Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
  • Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
  • Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

Be the first on the bandwagon

PanthersNittany Lions
Neutrals only–
PanthersNittany Lions
Picks locked at kickoff.
Bandwagon minus model, Nittany Lions–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

DraftKings line, closing

Axle and the DraftKings line for Pittsburgh at Penn State
AxleDraftKings line (closing)
SpreadPKPittsburgh −2.5
Total149.5153.5
Moneyline (away / home)−123 / +123−148 / +124

DraftKings line: the spread, total and moneylines DraftKings published for this game, the last complete ones read before the game started, as read from a public league scoreboard feed, as of ; these figures have stood since . Shown for comparison; Axle never reads them (how the comparison works).

Pittsburgh vs Penn State odds on Kalshi and Polymarket

Every Men's college basketball market

Kalshi had Panthers at 57% when last read, ; Polymarket had them at 57% when last read, ; and Axle 2.0 had them at 55% when last read, .

SourcePITTPSUPrice read
Kalshi57%43% · closing price
Polymarket57%43% · closing price
Bandwagon model55%45% · model 2.0
Kalshi minus model, PSU: −1Polymarket minus model, PSU: −1

Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works

Pittsburgh Panthers vs Penn State Nittany Lions prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Panthers the favorite, with a 55% chance to win; its spread rounds to even. The model total is 149.5. Ratings: Nittany Lions 1452 (250th of 365), Panthers 1527 (137th). The Nittany Lions are 2-1; the Panthers are 3-0. The Nittany Lions have won 3 of their last 5; the Panthers 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Nittany Lions won 0, the Panthers 1.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Pittsburgh Panthers

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
vs Pittsburgh PanthersL 76–82––matchup
vs Buffalo BullsW 80–61––matchup
vs Rider BroncsW 95–57––matchup
at NC State WolfpackL 88–98––matchup
at Stanford CardinalW 64–63––matchup

Penn State Nittany Lions

OpponentKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
at Penn State Nittany LionsW 82–76––matchup
vs Chattanooga MocsW 97–93––matchup
vs Canisius Golden GriffinsW 97–57––matchup
at Northwestern WildcatsL 66–76––matchup
at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsL 62–74––matchup

Head-to-head

GameKick (ET)ResultPicksAxle
Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions80–46––matchup

Injuries

Pittsburgh Panthers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Penn State Nittany Lions: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings
  • Panthers3-0 8th · W3
  • Panthers rating1527 137th of 365, 3 games
  • Nittany Lions2-1 15th · L1
  • Nittany Lions rating1452 250th of 365, 3 games

Pittsburgh Panthers 3-0

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W3

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PITTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PITTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PITTMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $PITTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Pittsburgh Panthers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Panthers roster, schedule and more

Penn State Nittany Lions 2-1

NCAA Division I men's basketball · 15th · streak L1

–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $PSUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $PSUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –
–
Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $PSUMBB
▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $PSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Penn State Nittany Lions bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on▼ Jump off

Nittany Lions roster, schedule and more

Takes on Pittsburgh Panthers at Penn State Nittany Lions

Sign in to post a take on $PSUMBBPITTMBB261109: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

Final: Pittsburgh 82, Penn State 76. Bandwagon's model had the Pittsburgh at 55% and projected Pittsburgh 74.8, Penn State 74.7; spread even, total 149.5. Last read: Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 57% for Pittsburgh.