Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Northern Illinois at Bowling Green: Bandwagon's model makes Bowling Green an 82% favorite (Bowling Green −11.5).
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bowling Green Falcons odds and win probability
Axle gives Bowling Green a 82% chance to win, by about 11 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Bowling Green
All CBB ratings| NIU | BGSU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1369 342nd of 365 | 1517 153rd of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | W2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 4 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BGSU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:38 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:18 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:58 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:13 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 82% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 82% | +1 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:37 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:23 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:18 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 81% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 81% | — |
Northern Illinois Huskies vs Bowling Green Falcons prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Falcons a 11.5-point favorite at home, with a 82% chance to win. The model total is 151. Ratings: Falcons 1517 (153rd of 365), Huskies 1369 (342nd). The Falcons are 2-0; the Huskies are 1-2. The Falcons have won 4 of their last 5; the Huskies 2 of their last 5. The two have met 5 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Falcons won 4, the Huskies 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Northern Illinois Huskies
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Dayton Flyers | W 81–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | L 75–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northern Illinois Huskies | W 89–87 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Akron Zips | L 55–94 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Kent State Golden Flashes | L 76–102 | – | – | matchup |
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Cleveland State Vikings | W 95–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Georgia State Panthers | W 76–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | L 76–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 81–62 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies | 68–52 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies | 71–58 | – | – | matchup | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons | 77–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bowling Green Falcons at Northern Illinois Huskies | 83–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons | 86–78 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Northern Illinois Huskies: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Huskies1-2 8th · W1
- Huskies rating1369 342nd of 365, 3 games
- Falcons2-0 3rd · W2
- Falcons rating1517 153rd of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $NIUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Northern Illinois Huskies bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 3rd · streak W2
No stances yet today on $BGSUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bowling Green Falcons bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bowling Green 82% to win. Projected score Bowling Green 81, Northern Illinois 70; spread Bowling Green −11.5, total 151. Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons, Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ET.