Bowling Green Falcons and Georgia State Panthers are tied 34-34 in the live game. The model has Georgia State at 52 percent, while the Falcons hold no edge on the scoreboard.
NCAA Men's Basketball · · GSU Sports Arena · every NCAA Division I men's basketball line
Bowling Green Falcons vs Georgia State Panthers: final score and how the prediction did, November 2, 2026
- Final scoreBowling Green 76, Georgia State 73 the projected winner lost
- Pregame Projected winnerGeorgia State 52%
- Pregame Projected scoreGeorgia State 74, Bowling Green 72
- Model spreadGeorgia State −2 total 145.5
- Margin3 projected 1.8
- Total149 projected 145.5
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bowling Green Falcons or Georgia State Panthers: the bandwagon
Axle 48–52Market –
FinalPregame: GAST 52%Baseline: GAST 29.6% (−22.4)Big swing: 18.6 ptsClutch window: 6:32
| Team | 1 | 2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU | 34 | 42 | 76 |
| GAST | 34 | 39 | 73 |
Game clock
Final
Situation
Final
Possession
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Bowling Green Falcons at Georgia State Panthers win probability
Bandwagon's modelBandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
MomentumStable−1.9 points for GAST over the last 5:00
Big swing18.6 ptstoward GAST at 16:23 of game time
Clutch window6:32within 5 points in the final half
BaselineGAST 29.6%game average, −22.4 points from the pregame 52.0%
Bowling Green Falcons vs Georgia State Panthers live stats
Team totals read from the league's public game summary| Stat | BGSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Field goals | BGSU27/55 | GAST26/64 |
| 3-pointers | BGSU8/21 | GAST15/35 |
| Free throws | BGSU14/26 | GAST6/12 |
| Rebounds | BGSU41 | GAST28 |
| Assists | BGSU12 | GAST15 |
| Turnovers | BGSU13 | GAST10 |
| Steals | BGSU4 | GAST6 |
| Blocks | BGSU1 | GAST4 |
| Points in the paint | BGSU38 | GAST18 |
| Fast-break points | BGSU11 | GAST8 |
| Fouls | BGSU16 | GAST19 |
| Largest lead | BGSU19 | GAST4 |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Georgia State Panthers team breakdown
From the stored in-game series| Stat | BGSU | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Score | BGSU76 | GAST73 |
| Average win probability | BGSU70% | GAST30% |
| Longest scoring run | BGSU+12 | GAST+9 |
| Time leading | BGSU26:28 | GAST6:42 |
Bowling Green Falcons vs Georgia State Panthers odds
Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET
Falcons48%
Win chancePanthers52%
SpreadGAST −2closing model spread
Total145.5
Moneyline+108away / −108homeaway / home
Line movementGAST win chance, 12 stored lines
−13 pts for GAST between Oct 29 and Nov 2
71%42%
Oct 29Oct 31Nov 2
Every stored line
| Stored | GAST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:48 PM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:05 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 52% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 52% | +4 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 48% | −17 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- GAST 1406 · BGSU 1500
- Home spread
- −2
- Stored
- Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET · 2026-11-03 01:11 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Result: Bowling Green Falcons 76, Georgia State Panthers 73. The closing line above is the last one the model stored before kickoff.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule unavailable for this game · First game of a season for at least one siderest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · No injury list read before this gameplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
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No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Bowling Green Falcons vs Georgia State Panthers prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Panthers a 2-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Panthers 1397 (323rd of 361), Falcons 1508 (163rd). The Panthers are 0-1; the Falcons are 1-0. The Panthers have won 0 of their last 5; the Falcons 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Bowling Green Falcons
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Georgia State Panthers | W 76–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Toledo Rockets | L 76–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eastern Michigan Eagles | W 77–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Massachusetts Minutemen | W 81–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Michigan Broncos | L 79–88 | – | – | matchup |
Georgia State Panthers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bowling Green Falcons | L 73–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 75–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Old Dominion Monarchs | L 73–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Coastal Carolina Chanticleers | L 71–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs James Madison Dukes | L 65–80 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Bowling Green Falcons: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Georgia State Panthers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Falcons1-0 2nd · W1
- Falcons rating1508 163rd of 361, 1 games
- Panthers0-1 9th · L1
- Panthers rating1397 323rd of 361, 1 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W1
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NCAA Division I men's basketball · 9th · streak L1
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Final: Bowling Green 76, Georgia State 73. Bandwagon's model had the Georgia State at 52% and projected Georgia State 74, Bowling Green 72; spread Georgia State −2, total 145.5.