Mercyhurst Lakers vs Western Illinois Leathernecks prediction, odds and picks, November 21, 2026
Mercyhurst at Western Illinois: Bandwagon's model makes Mercyhurst a 65% favorite (Mercyhurst −2.5).
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Western Illinois Leathernecks odds and win probability
Axle gives Mercyhurst a 65% chance to win, by about 3 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Mercyhurst
All CBB ratings| MERC | WIU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1433 275th of 365 | 1313 361st of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | W1 | W1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | WIU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:48 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:33 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:58 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:53 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:34 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:13 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:48 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:43 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:13 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 1:33 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:28 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:58 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 7:14 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:53 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 6:33 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:28 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:13 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:09 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:18 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | — |
Mercyhurst Lakers vs Western Illinois Leathernecks prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Lakers a 2.5-point favorite, with a 65% chance to win. The model total is 142.5. Ratings: Leathernecks 1313 (361st of 365), Lakers 1433 (275th). The Leathernecks are 1-2; the Lakers are 1-2. The Leathernecks have won 0 of their last 5; the Lakers 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Mercyhurst Lakers
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Notre Dame Fighting Irish | L 56–83 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Marquette Golden Eagles | L 43–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Long Island University Sharks | L 70–79 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Stonehill Skyhawks | W 56–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights | W 70–61 | – | – | matchup |
Western Illinois Leathernecks
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Houston Christian Huskies | L 67–74 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Valparaiso Beacons | L 58–80 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SIU Edwardsville Cougars | L 47–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Morehead State Eagles | L 59–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Little Rock Trojans | L 58–77 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Mercyhurst Lakers: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Western Illinois Leathernecks: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Lakers1-2 5th · W1
- Lakers rating1433 275th of 365, 2 games
- Leathernecks1-2 8th · W1
- Leathernecks rating1313 361st of 365, 2 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 5th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MERCMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Mercyhurst Lakers bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 8th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $WIUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Western Illinois Leathernecks bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Illinois Leathernecks
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Mercyhurst 65% to win. Projected score Mercyhurst 73, Western Illinois 70; spread Mercyhurst −2.5, total 142.5. Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Illinois Leathernecks, Sat, Nov 21, 1:30 PM ET.