McNeese Cowboys vs Texas State Bobcats prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
McNeese at Texas State: Bandwagon's model makes Texas State a 51% favorite (Texas State −1.5).
McNeese Cowboys vs Texas State Bobcats odds and win probability
Axle gives Texas State a 51% chance to win, by about 2 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Texas State
All CBB ratings| MCN | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1633 32nd of 365 | 1511 159th of 365 |
| Record | 2-1 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | W3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results, streak and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | TXST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:28 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:18 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:58 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:18 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 51% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 51% | +3 |
| Nov 10, 9:33 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:58 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:17 AM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:37 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 11:08 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 10:08 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:03 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:58 PM ET | 48% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 48% | — |
McNeese Cowboys vs Texas State Bobcats prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bobcats a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 51% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Bobcats 1511 (159th of 365), Cowboys 1633 (32nd). The Bobcats are 3-0; the Cowboys are 2-1. The Bobcats have won 3 of their last 5; the Cowboys 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Bobcats won 0, the Cowboys 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
McNeese Cowboys
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at North Texas Mean Green | L 67–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UAB Blazers | W 99–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Vanderbilt Commodores | L 68–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks | W 76–59 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | W 84–80 | – | – | matchup |
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros | W 72–65 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W 67–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 77–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 60–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 54–67 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McNeese Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats | 59–48 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
McNeese Cowboys: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Cowboys2-1 4th · W1
- Cowboys rating1633 32nd of 365, 2 games
- Bobcats3-0 2nd · W3
- Bobcats rating1511 159th of 365, 1 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
McNeese Cowboys 2-1
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 4th · streak W1
No stances yet today on $MCNMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the McNeese Cowboys bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $TXSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on McNeese Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Texas State 51% to win. Projected score Texas State 74, McNeese 72; spread Texas State −1.5, total 145.5. McNeese Cowboys at Texas State Bobcats, Sun, Nov 22, 3:30 PM ET.