Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros prediction, odds and picks, November 10, 2026
- Projected winnerUT Rio Grande Valley 69%
- Projected scoreUT Rio Grande Valley 76, Texas State 69
- Model spreadUT Rio Grande Valley −6.5 total 145.5
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Texas State Bobcats or UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: the bandwagon
Axle 31–69Market –
Texas State Bobcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | TXST | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Score | TXST– | RGV– |
| Average win probability | TXST– | RGV– |
| Longest scoring run | TXST– | RGV– |
| Time leading | TXST– | RGV– |
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros odds
Every stored line
| Stored | RGV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:25 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 12:10 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:08 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:48 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:19 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:00 AM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:14 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:51 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:38 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:17 PM ET | 69% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:07 PM ET | 69% | −2 |
| Nov 2, 9:57 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:46 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:41 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:58 PM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 71% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 73% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 73% | +8 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 65% | — |
- Ratings
- RGV 1538 · TXST 1511
- Home spread
- −6.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET · 2026-11-04 10:03 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:29 PM UTC
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Texas State Bobcats vs UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Vaqueros a 6.5-point favorite at home, with a 69% chance to win. The model total is 145.5. Ratings: Vaqueros 1538 (110th of 361), Bobcats 1511 (159th). The Vaqueros are 0-0; the Bobcats are 0-0. The Vaqueros have won 3 of their last 5; the Bobcats 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
Texas State Bobcats
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders | W 67–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Southern Miss Golden Eagles | L 77–81 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs App State Mountaineers | W 60–57 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns | L 54–67 | – | – | matchup | |
| at South Alabama Jaguars | W 90–82 | – | – | matchup |
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at McNeese Cowboys | L 80–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Nicholls Colonels | W 86–68 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Northwestern State Demons | W 74–62 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs East Texas A&M Lions | W 63–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at McNeese Cowboys | L 68–75 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Texas State Bobcats: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Bobcats0-0 7th · -
- Bobcats rating1511 159th of 361, 1 games
- Vaqueros0-0 12th · -
- Vaqueros rating1538 110th of 361, 0 games
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 7th · streak -
No stances yet today on $TXSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas State Bobcats bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 12th · streak -
No stances yet today on $RGVMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: UT Rio Grande Valley 69% to win. Projected score UT Rio Grande Valley 76, Texas State 69; spread UT Rio Grande Valley −6.5, total 145.5. Texas State Bobcats at UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros, Tue, Nov 10, 7:30 PM ET.