Illinois State Redbirds vs Santa Clara Broncos prediction, odds and picks, November 23, 2026
Illinois State at Santa Clara: Bandwagon's model makes Santa Clara a 68% favorite (Santa Clara −6).
Illinois State Redbirds vs Santa Clara Broncos odds and win probability
Axle gives Santa Clara a 68% chance to win, by about 6 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Hop on a side before tip-off
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Why Axle has Santa Clara
All CBB ratings| ILST | SCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1546 101st of 365 | 1649 22nd of 365 |
| Record | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:22 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 11, 12:08 AM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:03 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:43 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:28 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:08 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 8:28 PM ET | 68% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 68% | — |
Illinois State Redbirds vs Santa Clara Broncos prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Broncos a 6-point favorite, with a 68% chance to win. The model total is 149. Ratings: Broncos 1649 (22nd of 365), Redbirds 1546 (101st). The Broncos are 3-0; the Redbirds are 1-2. The Broncos have won 3 of their last 5; the Redbirds 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Illinois State Redbirds
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Purdue Boilermakers | L 59–76 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Saint Mary's Gaels | L 85–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Auburn Tigers | L 66–88 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Dayton Flyers | W 61–55 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Wake Forest Demon Deacons | W 78–75 | – | – | matchup |
Santa Clara Broncos
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Sacramento State Hornets | W 83–77 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Milwaukee Panthers | W 95–72 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Towson Tigers | W 89–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Kentucky Wildcats | L 84–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Gonzaga Bulldogs | L 68–79 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
Illinois State Redbirds: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Santa Clara Broncos: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Redbirds1-2 11th · L1
- Redbirds rating1546 101st of 365, 2 games
- Broncos3-0 2nd · W3
- Broncos rating1649 22nd of 365, 3 games
More CBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 11th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $ILSTMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Illinois State Redbirds bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I men's basketball · 2nd · streak W3
No stances yet today on $SCUMBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Santa Clara Broncos bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Illinois State Redbirds at Santa Clara Broncos
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I men's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I men's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Santa Clara 68% to win. Projected score Santa Clara 78, Illinois State 71; spread Santa Clara −6, total 149. Illinois State Redbirds at Santa Clara Broncos, Mon, Nov 23, 7:00 PM ET.