VfB Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
VfB Stuttgart at Schalke 04: Bandwagon's model makes VfB Stuttgart a 47% favorite (VfB Stuttgart −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 53%.
VfB Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 model odds and win probability
Axle gives VfB Stuttgart a 47% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that VfB Stuttgart win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 47%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Kalshi has VfB Stuttgart at 53%, Axle at 47%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has VfB Stuttgart
All Bundesliga ratings| VFB | S04 | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1518 4th of 18 | 1378 16th of 18 |
| Record | 4-5 | 1-5-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-2-1 | 0-4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | S04 win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 25% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 26% | — |
VfB Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices VfB Stuttgart at 53%, Polymarket at 52% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VFB | Draw | S04 | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 53% | 23% | 24% | ||
| Polymarket | 52% | 23% | 25% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 47% | 28% | 25% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
VfB Stuttgart vs Schalke 04 prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the VfB Stuttgart a 0.5-point favorite, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Schalke 04 1378 (16th of 18), VfB Stuttgart 1518 (4th). The Schalke 04 are 1-5-3; the VfB Stuttgart are 4-5. The Schalke 04 have won 0 of their last 5; the VfB Stuttgart 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Schalke 04 won 1, the VfB Stuttgart 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
VfB Stuttgart
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Werder Bremen | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayer Leverkusen | W 4–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Atlético Madrid | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Hamburg SV | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Schalke 04
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at TSG Hoffenheim | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs RB Leipzig | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cologne | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mainz | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Freiburg | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart at Schalke 04 | 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Schalke 04 at VfB Stuttgart | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
VfB Stuttgart: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Schalke 04: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- VfB Stuttgart4-5 8th
- VfB Stuttgart rating1518 4th of 18, 9 games
- Schalke 041-5-3 17th
- Schalke 04 rating1378 16th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
VfB Stuttgart 4-5
Bundesliga · 8th
No stances yet today on $STUTTGART: the share of the crowd ▲ on the VfB Stuttgart bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Schalke 04 1-5-3
Bundesliga · 17th
No stances yet today on $SCHALKE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Schalke 04 bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on VfB Stuttgart at Schalke 04
Sign in to post a take on $STUTTGARTSCHALKE261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: VfB Stuttgart 47% to win, draw 28%. Projected score VfB Stuttgart 1.5, Schalke 04 1.0; spread VfB Stuttgart −0.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 53%, Polymarket 52% for VfB Stuttgart. VfB Stuttgart at Schalke 04, Sat, Nov 21, 12:30 PM ET.