SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
SC Paderborn 07 at Bayer Leverkusen: Bandwagon's model makes Bayer Leverkusen a 62% favorite (Bayer Leverkusen −1); Kalshi prices them at 77%.
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen model odds and win probability
Axle gives Bayer Leverkusen a 63% chance to win, by about 1.2 goals, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that Bayer Leverkusen win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 14 points: Kalshi has Bayer Leverkusen at 77%, Axle at 63%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Bayer Leverkusen
All Bundesliga ratings| SCP | B04 | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1397 12th of 18 | 1515 5th of 18 |
| Record | 2-3-4 | 5-3-1 |
| Last 5 games | 1-1-3 | 3-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | B04 win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 62% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 62% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 61% | — |
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Bayer Leverkusen at 77%, Polymarket at 77%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 62%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SCP | Draw | B04 | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9% | 14% | 77% | ||
| Polymarket | 10% | 13% | 77% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 15% | 22% | 62% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
SC Paderborn 07 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayer Leverkusen a 1-point favorite at home, with a 62% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Bayer Leverkusen 1515 (5th of 18), SC Paderborn 07 1397 (12th). The Bayer Leverkusen are 5-3-1; the SC Paderborn 07 are 2-3-4. The Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of their last 5; the SC Paderborn 07 1 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
SC Paderborn 07
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Eintracht Frankfurt | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Borussia Mönchengladbach | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Hamburg SV | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Werder Bremen | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Bayer Leverkusen
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at FC Cologne | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs VfB Stuttgart | L 2–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| at TSG Hoffenheim | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Freiburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Mainz | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
SC Paderborn 07: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bayer Leverkusen: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- SC Paderborn 072-3-4 13th
- SC Paderborn 07 rating1397 12th of 18, 9 games
- Bayer Leverkusen5-3-1 5th
- Bayer Leverkusen rating1515 5th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
SC Paderborn 07 2-3-4
Bundesliga · 13th
No stances yet today on $PADERBORN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SC Paderborn 07 bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bayer Leverkusen 5-3-1
Bundesliga · 5th
No stances yet today on $LEVERKUSEN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayer Leverkusen bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SC Paderborn 07 at Bayer Leverkusen
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bayer Leverkusen 62% to win, draw 22%. Projected score Bayer Leverkusen 2.1, SC Paderborn 07 0.9; spread Bayer Leverkusen −1, total 3. Kalshi 77%, Polymarket 77% for Bayer Leverkusen. SC Paderborn 07 at Bayer Leverkusen, Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 AM ET.