SC Freiburg vs SV Elversberg prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
SC Freiburg at SV Elversberg: Bandwagon's model has this one even.
SC Freiburg vs SV Elversberg model odds and win probability
Axle has this one even: SC Freiburg 35%, draw 29%, SV Elversberg 36%.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that SV Elversberg win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 36%.
The largest gap is 8 points: Axle has SV Elversberg at 36%, Kalshi at 28%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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How the two sides compare
All Bundesliga ratings| SCF | ELV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1481 6th of 18 | 1421 9th of 18 |
| Record | 6-2-1 | 4-4-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record and last 5 results are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ELV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 35% | −2 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 37% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 37% | — |
SC Freiburg vs SV Elversberg odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices SC Freiburg at 47%, Polymarket at 47%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 35%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | SCF | Draw | ELV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 25% | 28% | ||
| Polymarket | 47% | 25% | 28% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 35% | 29% | 35% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
SC Freiburg vs SV Elversberg prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 35% for the SV Elversberg, 29% for a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: SV Elversberg 1421 (9th of 18), SC Freiburg 1481 (6th). The SV Elversberg are 4-4-1; the SC Freiburg are 6-2-1. The SV Elversberg have won 2 of their last 5; the SC Freiburg 3 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
SC Freiburg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs 1. FC Union Berlin | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Augsburg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Bayern Munich | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
SV Elversberg
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Borussia Dortmund | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Mainz | W 4–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at RB Leipzig | L 0–4 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Augsburg | W 4–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
SC Freiburg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
SV Elversberg: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- SC Freiburg6-2-1 3rd
- SC Freiburg rating1481 6th of 18, 9 games
- SV Elversberg4-4-1 7th
- SV Elversberg rating1421 9th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
SC Freiburg 6-2-1
Bundesliga · 3rd
No stances yet today on $FREIBURG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SC Freiburg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
SV Elversberg 4-4-1
Bundesliga · 7th
No stances yet today on $ELVERSBERG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the SV Elversberg bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on SC Freiburg at SV Elversberg
Sign in to post a take on $FREIBURGELVERSBERG261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: even, draw 29%. Projected score SV Elversberg 1.8, SC Freiburg 1.8; spread even, total 3.5. Kalshi 47%, Polymarket 47% for SC Freiburg. SC Freiburg at SV Elversberg, Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 AM ET.