RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin: Bandwagon's model makes RB Leipzig a 47% favorite (RB Leipzig −0.5); Kalshi prices them at 62%.
RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin model odds and win probability
Axle gives RB Leipzig a 47% chance to win, with a 28% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that RB Leipzig win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 47%.
The largest gap is 15 points: Kalshi has RB Leipzig at 62%, Axle at 47%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
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Why Axle has RB Leipzig
All Bundesliga ratings| RBL | FCU | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1535 3rd of 18 | 1396 13th of 18 |
| Record | 6-3 | 1-4-4 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 1-1-3 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 3 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | FCU win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 25% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 25% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 26% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 26% | — |
RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices RB Leipzig at 62%, Polymarket at 61% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 47%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | RBL | Draw | FCU | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62% | 21% | 17% | ||
| Polymarket | 61% | 20% | 19% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 47% | 28% | 25% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the RB Leipzig a 0.5-point favorite, with a 47% chance to win and a 28% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: 1. FC Union Berlin 1396 (13th of 18), RB Leipzig 1535 (3rd). The 1. FC Union Berlin are 1-4-4; the RB Leipzig are 6-3. The 1. FC Union Berlin have won 1 of their last 5; the RB Leipzig 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the 1. FC Union Berlin won 1, the RB Leipzig 3.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
RB Leipzig
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs FC Augsburg | W 5–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Manchester City | L 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Schalke 04 | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | W 4–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Real Madrid | L 1–4 | – | – | matchup |
1. FC Union Berlin
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at SC Freiburg | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs FC Cologne | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Augsburg | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SV Elversberg | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. FC Union Berlin at RB Leipzig | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin | 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at RB Leipzig | 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| 1. FC Union Berlin at RB Leipzig | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin | 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
RB Leipzig: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
1. FC Union Berlin: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- RB Leipzig6-3 4th
- RB Leipzig rating1535 3rd of 18, 9 games
- 1. FC Union Berlin1-4-4 16th
- 1. FC Union Berlin rating1396 13th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
RB Leipzig 6-3
Bundesliga · 4th
No stances yet today on $RBLEIPZIG: the share of the crowd ▲ on the RB Leipzig bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
1. FC Union Berlin 1-4-4
Bundesliga · 16th
No stances yet today on $UNIONBERLIN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the 1. FC Union Berlin bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: RB Leipzig 47% to win, draw 28%. Projected score RB Leipzig 2.0, 1. FC Union Berlin 1.5; spread RB Leipzig −0.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 62%, Polymarket 61% for RB Leipzig. RB Leipzig at 1. FC Union Berlin, Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 AM ET.