FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
FC Cologne at Bayern Munich: Bandwagon's model makes Bayern Munich an 87% favorite (Bayern Munich −3); Kalshi prices them at 89%.
FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich model odds and win probability
Axle gives Bayern Munich a 87% chance to win, by about 3 goals, with a 9% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that Bayern Munich win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 87%.
The largest gap is 2 points: Kalshi has Bayern Munich at 89%, Axle at 87%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Bayern Munich
All Bundesliga ratings| KOE | MUN | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1363 17th of 18 | 1707 1st of 18 |
| Record | 2-4-3 | 6-0-3 |
| Last 5 games | 1-2-2 | 3-0-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 5 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | MUN win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 87% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 87% | +1 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 2:25 PM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:29 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 11:24 AM ET | 86% | 0 |
| Nov 7, 5:02 AM ET | 86% | — |
FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Bayern Munich at 89%, Polymarket at 89%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 87%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | KOE | Draw | MUN | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 5% | 6% | 89% | ||
| Polymarket | 4% | 7% | 89% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 4% | 9% | 87% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
FC Cologne vs Bayern Munich prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bayern Munich a 3-point favorite at home, with a 87% chance to win and a 9% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Bayern Munich 1707 (1st of 18), FC Cologne 1363 (17th). The Bayern Munich are 6-0-3; the FC Cologne are 2-4-3. The Bayern Munich have won 3 of their last 5; the FC Cologne 1 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bayern Munich won 5, the FC Cologne 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
FC Cologne
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Bayer Leverkusen | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Schalke 04 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Eintracht Frankfurt | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup |
Bayern Munich
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Mainz | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Atlético Madrid | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Borussia Dortmund | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at SC Freiburg | W 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Arsenal | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cologne at Bayern Munich | 1–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at FC Cologne | 3–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at Bayern Munich | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at FC Cologne | 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| Bayern Munich at FC Cologne | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| FC Cologne at Bayern Munich | 1–1 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
FC Cologne: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bayern Munich: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- FC Cologne2-4-3 15th
- FC Cologne rating1363 17th of 18, 9 games
- Bayern Munich6-0-3 1st
- Bayern Munich rating1707 1st of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
FC Cologne 2-4-3
Bundesliga · 15th
No stances yet today on $COLOGNE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the FC Cologne bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bayern Munich 6-0-3
Bundesliga · 1st
No stances yet today on $BAYERN: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bayern Munich bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on FC Cologne at Bayern Munich
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bayern Munich 87% to win, draw 9%. Projected score Bayern Munich 2.9, FC Cologne 0.1; spread Bayern Munich −3, total 3. Kalshi 89%, Polymarket 89% for Bayern Munich. FC Cologne at Bayern Munich, Fri, Nov 20, 2:30 PM ET.