Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach: Bandwagon's model makes Borussia Dortmund a 66% favorite (Borussia Dortmund −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 60%.
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach model odds and win probability
Axle gives Borussia Dortmund a 66% chance to win, by about 1.4 goals, with a 21% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Bundesliga marketEach bar is the chance that Borussia Dortmund win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 66%.
The largest gap is 6 points: Axle has Borussia Dortmund at 66%, Kalshi at 60%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Borussia Dortmund
All Bundesliga ratings| DOR | BMG | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1601 2nd of 18 | 1338 18th of 18 |
| Record | 6-0-3 | 1-7-1 |
| Last 5 games | 3-0-2 | 1-3-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BMG win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 3:33 PM ET | 13% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 1:28 PM ET | 13% | −1 |
| Nov 8, 11:28 AM ET | 14% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 14% | — |
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Bundesliga marketKalshi prices Borussia Dortmund at 60%, Polymarket at 60%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 66%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | DOR | Draw | BMG | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 60% | 21% | 19% | ||
| Polymarket | 60% | 21% | 19% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 66% | 21% | 13% | · model 2.0 |
Ad · Bandwagon earns a commission: Trade on Kalshi (opens a new tab). 18+. Trading carries a risk of loss. Check your state. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Borussia Dortmund a 1.5-point favorite, with a 66% chance to win and a 21% chance of a draw. The model total is 3.5. Ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1338 (18th of 18), Borussia Dortmund 1601 (2nd). The Borussia Mönchengladbach are 1-7-1; the Borussia Dortmund are 6-0-3. The Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 1 of their last 5; the Borussia Dortmund 3 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Borussia Mönchengladbach won 1, the Borussia Dortmund 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs SV Elversberg | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Real Betis | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Bayern Munich | T 2–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Eintracht Frankfurt | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at 1. FC Union Berlin | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup |
Borussia Mönchengladbach
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Hamburg SV | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs SC Paderborn 07 | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at VfB Stuttgart | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs TSG Hoffenheim | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at FC Cologne | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia Dortmund | 2–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach at Borussia Dortmund | 2–4 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
Borussia Dortmund: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Borussia Mönchengladbach: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Borussia Dortmund6-0-3 2nd
- Borussia Dortmund rating1601 2nd of 18, 9 games
- Borussia Mönchengladbach1-7-1 18th
- Borussia Mönchengladbach rating1338 18th of 18, 9 games
More Bundesliga games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Borussia Dortmund 6-0-3
Bundesliga · 2nd
No stances yet today on $DORTMUND: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Borussia Dortmund bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-7-1
Bundesliga · 18th
No stances yet today on $GLADBACH: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Borussia Mönchengladbach bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach
Sign in to post a take on $DORTMUNDGLADBACH261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.
How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Bundesliga a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:33 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Borussia Dortmund 66% to win, draw 21%. Projected score Borussia Dortmund 2.5, Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.1; spread Borussia Dortmund −1.5, total 3.5. Kalshi 60%, Polymarket 60% for Borussia Dortmund. Borussia Dortmund at Borussia Mönchengladbach, Sat, Nov 21, 9:30 AM ET.