NCAA Women's Basketball · Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 AM ET · Moody Center · every NCAA Division I women's basketball line

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns prediction, odds and picks, November 13, 2026

Projected winnerTexas 96%
Projected scoreTexas 78, Tarleton State 53
Model spreadTexas −25 total 130.5
Crowd's pickno picks yet

Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET

Tarleton State Texans or Texas Longhorns: the bandwagon

Bandwagon

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Texans▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Longhorns▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Axle 4–96Market –

Scheduled · Saturday, November 14 at 12:00 AM ETPregame: TEX 96%

Tarleton State Texans

Record 1-0

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Texas Longhorns

Record 0-0

Game clock

KickoffSaturday, November 14 at 12:00 AM ET

Situation

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Possession

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Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns win probability

Bandwagon's model

No read of the live source is stored for this game.

The in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.

Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is computed

The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.

Momentum–Starts with the game.

Big swing–Starts with the game.

Clutch window–Starts with the game.

Baseline–Starts with the game.

Box scoreTeam breakdown

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns live stats

From the league's public game summary

Team statistics appear once the game starts.

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns team breakdown

From the stored in-game series (none for this game)

Team breakdown
Stat	TAR	TEX
Score	TAR–	TEX–
Average win probability	TAR–	TEX–
Longest scoring run	TAR–	TEX–
Time leading	TAR–	TEX–

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns odds

Bandwagon modelAxle 2.0 · updated 5:04 AM ET

Texans4%

Win chance

Longhorns96%

SpreadTEX −25

Total130.5

Moneyline+2580away / −2580homeaway / home

Line movementTEX win chance, 76 stored lines

No move

100%91%

Nov 1Nov 3Now

Every stored line

Stored	TEX win	Move
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 5, 12:01 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 11:01 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 10:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 9:55 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 8:05 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 2:15 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 10:03 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 8:53 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 8:28 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 1:03 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 3, 12:05 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 11:19 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 10:41 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 10:33 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 10:13 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:26 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 4:27 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 2:20 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET	96%	0
Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET	96%	0
Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET	96%	—

Ratings: TEX 1834 · TAR 1462
Home spread: −25
Stored: Nov 5, 5:04 AM ET · 2026-11-05 10:04 UTC
Version: Axle 2.0

How the model works

Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

How this line is made

In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.

Internal

Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results

External

Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:37 PM UTC
Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts

Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.

Who ya got: bandwagon versus model

Who ya got · no picks yet

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TexansLonghorns

Neutrals only–

Texans Longhorns

Change your pick any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.

Bandwagon minus model, Longhorns–

No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.

Tarleton State Texans vs Texas Longhorns prediction

Bandwagon's model makes the Longhorns a 25-point favorite at home, with a 96% chance to win. The model total is 130.5. Ratings: Longhorns 1834 (4th of 356), Texans 1462 (216th). The Longhorns are 0-0; the Texans are 1-0. The Longhorns have won 4 of their last 5; the Texans 3 of their last 5. The two have met 1 time in Bandwagon's results history; the Longhorns won 1, the Texans 0.

Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.

Recent form

Tarleton State Texans

Opponent	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions	Wed, Nov 4, 12:00 PM ET	W 66–47	–	–	matchup
at California Baptist Lancers	Fri, Mar 13, 3:00 PM ET	L 60–77	–	–	matchup
at Utah Valley Wolverines	Thu, Mar 12, 3:00 PM ET	W 60–57	–	–	matchup
at UT Arlington Mavericks	Thu, Mar 5, 7:30 PM ET	W 65–54	–	–	matchup
vs California Baptist Lancers	Sat, Feb 28, 3:00 PM ET	L 67–76	–	–	matchup

Texas Longhorns

Opponent	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
vs Fairleigh Dickinson Knights	Wed, Nov 4, 8:00 PM ET	W 85–65	–	–	matchup
at UCLA Bruins	Fri, Apr 3, 9:40 PM ET	L 44–51	–	–	matchup
vs Michigan Wolverines	Mon, Mar 30, 7:00 PM ET	W 77–41	–	–	matchup
vs Kentucky Wildcats	Sat, Mar 28, 3:00 PM ET	W 76–54	–	–	matchup
vs Oregon Ducks	Sun, Mar 22, 6:00 PM ET	W 100–58	–	–	matchup

Head-to-head

Game	Kick (ET)	Result	Picks	Axle
Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns	Wed, Nov 20, 12:00 PM ET	41–83	–	–	matchup

Injuries

Tarleton State Texans: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

Texas Longhorns: nobody listed as injured by the roster source

From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.

Standings and ratings

All ratings

Texans1-0 5th · W1
Texans rating1462 216th of 356, 1 games
Longhorns0-0 16th · -
Longhorns rating1834 4th of 356, 1 games

Tarleton State Texans 1-0

EveryoneFansNeutrals

NCAA Division I women's basketball · 5th · streak W1

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TARWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TARWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TARWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $TARWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Tarleton State Texans bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Texans roster, schedule and more

Texas Longhorns 0-0

EveryoneFansNeutrals

NCAA Division I women's basketball · 16th · streak -

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo stances yet today on $TEXWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo fan stances yet today on $TEXWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

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Be the first on the bandwagonNo neutral stances yet today on $TEXWBB

▲ on –30 days: not enough history▼ off –

No stances yet today on $TEXWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Texas Longhorns bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.

▲ Hop on ▼ Jump off

Longhorns roster, schedule and more

Takes on Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns

No takes on this game yet. Yours goes first.

Model: Texas 96% to win. Projected score Texas 78, Tarleton State 53; spread Texas −25, total 130.5. Tarleton State Texans at Texas Longhorns, Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM ET.