North Texas Mean Green vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction, odds and picks, November 22, 2026
North Texas at Arkansas State: Bandwagon's model makes Arkansas State a 55% favorite (Arkansas State −4).
North Texas Mean Green vs Arkansas State Red Wolves odds and win probability
Axle gives Arkansas State a 55% chance to win, by about 4 points.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
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Why Axle has Arkansas State
All WCBB ratings| UNT | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1557 119th of 357 | 1571 104th of 357 |
| Record | 1-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results, home advantage and schedule; record, last 5 results and streak are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | ARST win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 11:08 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 10:38 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:48 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:23 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:13 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 9:03 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 2:02 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 1:08 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:03 AM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 9:28 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 8:33 PM ET | 55% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 55% | — |
North Texas Mean Green vs Arkansas State Red Wolves prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Red Wolves a 4-point favorite, with a 55% chance to win. The model total is 132.5. Ratings: Red Wolves 1571 (104th of 357), Mean Green 1557 (119th). The Red Wolves are 0-2; the Mean Green are 1-1. The Red Wolves have won 2 of their last 5; the Mean Green 2 of their last 5.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
North Texas Mean Green
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Duke Blue Devils | L 56–78 | – | – | matchup | |
| at San Diego State Aztecs | L 57–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Rice Owls | L 67–71 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Tulsa Golden Hurricane | W 76–73 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Florida Atlantic Owls | W 80–57 | – | – | matchup |
Arkansas State Red Wolves
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles | L 59–89 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Ball State Cardinals | L 74–84 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Marshall Thundering Herd | L 62–69 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Cleveland State Vikings | W 71–53 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons | W 83–72 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
No earlier meeting in Bandwagon's results history.
Injuries
North Texas Mean Green: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Arkansas State Red Wolves: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Mean Green1-1 6th · L1
- Mean Green rating1557 119th of 357, 1 games
- Red Wolves0-2 13th · L2
- Red Wolves rating1571 104th of 357, 2 games
More WCBB games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 6th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Texas Mean Green bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 13th · streak L2
No stances yet today on $ARSTWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Arkansas State Red Wolves bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on North Texas Mean Green at Arkansas State Red Wolves
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage used · none: neutral sitethe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · Neutral sitedistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Arkansas State 55% to win. Projected score Arkansas State 68, North Texas 64; spread Arkansas State −4, total 132.5. North Texas Mean Green at Arkansas State Red Wolves, Sun, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ET.