North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction, odds and picks, November 11, 2026
- Projected winnerNorth Carolina 95%
- Projected scoreNorth Carolina 78, North Carolina Central 55
- Model spreadNorth Carolina −23.5 total 133
- Crowd's pickno picks yet
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
North Carolina Central Eagles or North Carolina Tar Heels: the bandwagon
Axle 5–95Market –
North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels win probability
Bandwagon's modelThe in-game line starts when the game does; the dashed line is the model's pregame number.
Bandwagon's model, from the score, the clock and the pregame line; the crowd's pregame picks and the markets' latest price sit beside its end. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is computed
The home side's chance is the pregame model probability at kickoff. As the game goes on, the score margin counts for more and the pregame number for less, in proportion to the square root of the share of the game left, with a small adjustment for who has the ball in football and basketball. A lead late is close to certain; a tie late is close to even. It knows only the score, the clock and the pregame line: not injuries, foul trouble, field position or who is on the ice. Soccer counts a draw as half a win. Points are stored on every read of the league's public game summary while the game is on; a game read only after the final whistle is rebuilt from its scoring plays.
North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels live stats
From the league's public game summaryTeam statistics appear once the game starts.
North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels team breakdown
From the stored in-game series (none for this game)| Stat | NCCU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Score | NCCU– | UNC– |
| Average win probability | NCCU– | UNC– |
| Longest scoring run | NCCU– | UNC– |
| Time leading | NCCU– | UNC– |
North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels odds
Every stored line
| Stored | UNC win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 8:05 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 7:49 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 4, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 11:06 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 10:13 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:58 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:38 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:28 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:23 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:08 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 9:03 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:58 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:53 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:43 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 8:03 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 7:58 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 1:03 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 5:03 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 3, 12:34 AM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:55 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 11:04 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:33 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:18 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 10:03 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:58 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:46 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:41 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:36 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:31 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:21 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:16 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:12 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 9:01 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:56 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:26 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:11 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 8:01 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:56 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:51 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:46 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:16 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:12 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 7:06 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:58 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:47 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 6:13 PM ET | 95% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 4:58 PM ET | 95% | −1 |
| Nov 2, 4:08 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:47 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:17 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 3:02 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 2:05 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:06 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 1:01 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 12:31 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 2, 5:03 AM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 2:23 PM ET | 96% | 0 |
| Nov 1, 5:02 AM ET | 96% | −2 |
| Oct 31, 6:03 AM ET | 98% | 0 |
| Oct 30, 6:03 AM ET | 98% | 0 |
| Oct 29, 10:27 PM ET | 98% | +35 |
| Oct 29, 6:01 AM ET | 63% | — |
- Ratings
- UNC 1696 · NCCU 1350
- Home spread
- −23.5
- Stored
- Nov 4, 9:45 PM ET · 2026-11-05 02:45 UTC
- Version
- Axle 2.0
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
How this line is made
In NCAA Division I women's basketball a line starts from the ratings and adds the internal inputs marked used (rest, back-to-back, recent form) through a calibration layer fitted on past NCAA Division I women's basketball seasons, which beat rating-only out of sample. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form unavailable for this game · Fewer than three games played this season by at least one sideaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones unavailable for this game · A previous venue or its coordinates is not storeddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata venue coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones
- Weather unavailable for this game · Indoor sportforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Who ya got: bandwagon versus model
Be the first on the bandwagon
No picks yet; the model number is the win probability beside it. Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
North Carolina Central Eagles vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Tar Heels a 23.5-point favorite at home, with a 95% chance to win. The model total is 133. Ratings: Tar Heels 1696 (19th of 356), Eagles 1350 (317th). The Tar Heels are 0-1; the Eagles are 0-1. The Tar Heels have won 2 of their last 5; the Eagles 1 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Tar Heels won 2, the Eagles 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Recent form
North Carolina Central Eagles
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Virginia Tech Hokies | L 39–85 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Coppin State Eagles | L 52–70 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs South Carolina State Lady Bulldogs | W 67–41 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Delaware State Hornets | L 66–75 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks | L 55–58 | – | – | matchup |
North Carolina Tar Heels
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oklahoma Sooners | L 79–91 | – | – | matchup | |
| at UConn Huskies | L 42–63 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Maryland Terrapins | W 74–66 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Western Illinois Leathernecks | W 82–51 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Louisville Cardinals | L 57–65 | – | – | matchup |
Head-to-head
| Game | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels | 42–90 | – | – | matchup | |
| North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels | 43–119 | – | – | matchup |
Injuries
North Carolina Central Eagles: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
North Carolina Tar Heels: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Eagles0-1 8th · L1
- Eagles rating1350 317th of 356, 1 games
- Tar Heels0-1 17th · L1
- Tar Heels rating1696 19th of 356, 1 games
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 8th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $NCCUWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Central Eagles bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
NCAA Division I women's basketball · 17th · streak L1
No stances yet today on $UNCWBB: the share of the crowd ▲ on the North Carolina Tar Heels bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
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Model: North Carolina 95% to win. Projected score North Carolina 78, North Carolina Central 55; spread North Carolina −23.5, total 133. North Carolina Central Eagles at North Carolina Tar Heels, Wed, Nov 11, 7:00 PM ET.