Venezia vs Juventus prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Venezia at Juventus: Bandwagon's model makes Juventus a 71% favorite (Juventus −1.5); Kalshi prices them at 72%.
Venezia vs Juventus model odds and win probability
Axle gives Juventus a 71% chance to win, by about 1.3 goals, with a 18% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Juventus win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 71%.
The largest gap is 1 point: Kalshi has Juventus at 72%, Axle at 71%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
Why Axle has Juventus
All Serie A ratings| VEN | JUV | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1328 19th of 20 | 1523 7th of 20 |
| Record | 2-9 | 5-3-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-3 | 2-2-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 0 | 1 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | JUV win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 71% | — |
Venezia vs Juventus odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Juventus at 72%, Polymarket at 72%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 71%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | VEN | Draw | JUV | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 10% | 18% | 72% | ||
| Polymarket | 10% | 18% | 72% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 11% | 18% | 71% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Venezia vs Juventus prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Juventus a 1.5-point favorite at home, with a 71% chance to win and a 18% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Juventus 1523 (7th of 20), Venezia 1328 (19th). The Juventus are 5-3-3; the Venezia are 2-9. The Juventus have won 2 of their last 5; the Venezia 2 of their last 5. The two have met 2 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Juventus won 1, the Venezia 0.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Venezia
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Udinese | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Como | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Internazionale | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Genoa | L 0–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Napoli | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup |
Juventus
Head-to-head
Injuries
Venezia: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Juventus: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Venezia2-9 19th
- Venezia rating1328 19th of 20, 11 games
- Juventus5-3-3 7th
- Juventus rating1523 7th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Venezia 2-9
Serie A · 19th
No stances yet today on $VENEZIA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Venezia bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Juventus 5-3-3
Serie A · 7th
No stances yet today on $JUVENTUS: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Juventus bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Venezia at Juventus
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Juventus 71% to win, draw 18%. Projected score Juventus 1.9, Venezia 0.6; spread Juventus −1.5, total 2.5. Kalshi 72%, Polymarket 72% for Juventus. Venezia at Juventus, Sun, Nov 22, 6:30 AM ET.