Udinese vs Bologna prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Udinese at Bologna: Bandwagon's model makes Bologna a 63% favorite (Bologna −1); Kalshi prices them at 57%.
Udinese vs Bologna model odds and win probability
Axle gives Bologna a 63% chance to win, by about 1 goal, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Bologna win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 7 points: Axle has Bologna at 63%, Polymarket at 56%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Bologna
All Serie A ratings| UDI | BOL | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1358 16th of 20 | 1492 8th of 20 |
| Record | 1-8-2 | 5-4-2 |
| Last 5 games | 0-4-1 | 4-1 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 1 | 2 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | BOL win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | — |
Udinese vs Bologna odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Bologna at 57%, Polymarket at 56% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | UDI | Draw | BOL | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 18% | 25% | 57% | ||
| Polymarket | 18% | 26% | 56% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 15% | 22% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Udinese vs Bologna prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Bologna a 1-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Bologna 1492 (8th of 20), Udinese 1358 (16th). The Bologna are 5-4-2; the Udinese are 1-8-2. The Bologna have won 4 of their last 5; the Udinese 0 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Bologna won 2, the Udinese 1.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Udinese
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| at Venezia | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AS Roma | L 2–5 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Parma | T 0–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs AC Milan | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Lecce | L 0–3 | – | – | matchup |
Bologna
Head-to-head
Injuries
Udinese: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Bologna: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Udinese1-8-2 20th
- Udinese rating1358 16th of 20, 11 games
- Bologna5-4-2 8th
- Bologna rating1492 8th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Udinese 1-8-2
Serie A · 20th
No stances yet today on $UDINESE: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Udinese bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Bologna 5-4-2
Serie A · 8th
No stances yet today on $BOLOGNA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Bologna bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Udinese at Bologna
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Bologna 63% to win, draw 22%. Projected score Bologna 2.0, Udinese 1.0; spread Bologna −1, total 3. Kalshi 57%, Polymarket 56% for Bologna. Udinese at Bologna, Sun, Nov 22, 9:00 AM ET.