Torino vs Napoli prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Torino at Napoli: Bandwagon's model makes Napoli a 63% favorite (Napoli −1); Kalshi prices them at 67%.
Torino vs Napoli model odds and win probability
Axle gives Napoli a 63% chance to win, by about 1 goal, with a 22% chance of a draw.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Napoli win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 63%.
The largest gap is 4 points: Kalshi has Napoli at 67%, Axle at 63%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
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Why Axle has Napoli
All Serie A ratings| TOR | NAP | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1393 14th of 20 | 1529 6th of 20 |
| Record | 4-5-2 | 4-4-3 |
| Last 5 games | 2-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 2 | 3 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | NAP win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 4:48 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 2:03 PM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 11:03 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 10:58 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 8:27 AM ET | 63% | 0 |
| Nov 8, 5:05 AM ET | 63% | — |
Torino vs Napoli odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Napoli at 67%, Polymarket at 66% (1 point apart), and Axle 2.0 gives them 63%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | TOR | Draw | NAP | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 14% | 19% | 67% | ||
| Polymarket | 13% | 21% | 66% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 15% | 22% | 63% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Torino vs Napoli prediction
Bandwagon's model makes the Napoli a 1-point favorite at home, with a 63% chance to win and a 22% chance of a draw. The model total is 2.5. Ratings: Napoli 1529 (6th of 20), Torino 1393 (14th). The Napoli are 4-4-3; the Torino are 4-5-2. The Napoli have won 1 of their last 5; the Torino 2 of their last 5. The two have met 6 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Napoli won 3, the Torino 2.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Torino
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs Lecce | T 1–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Frosinone | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Como | L 1–3 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Monza | W 3–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Parma | W 3–0 | – | – | matchup |
Napoli
Head-to-head
Injuries
Torino: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Napoli: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Torino4-5-2 11th
- Torino rating1393 14th of 20, 11 games
- Napoli4-4-3 10th
- Napoli rating1529 6th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Torino 4-5-2
Serie A · 11th
No stances yet today on $TORINO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Torino bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Napoli 4-4-3
Serie A · 10th
No stances yet today on $NAPOLI: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Napoli bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Torino at Napoli
Sign in to post a take on $TORINONAPOLI261121: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: Napoli 63% to win, draw 22%. Projected score Napoli 1.8, Torino 0.8; spread Napoli −1, total 2.5. Kalshi 67%, Polymarket 66% for Napoli. Torino at Napoli, Sat, Nov 21, 2:45 PM ET.