Genoa vs Sassuolo prediction market odds: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Bandwagon model
Genoa at Sassuolo: Bandwagon's model has this one even.
Genoa vs Sassuolo model odds and win probability
Axle has this one even: Genoa 36%, draw 29%, Sassuolo 35%.
Bandwagon Axle 2.0 · Updated
Bandwagon's model, not a sportsbook line. We do not take wagers.
Axle versus the markets and the crowd
Every Serie A marketEach bar is the chance that Sassuolo win. The thin blue mark is Axle's 35%.
The largest gap is 3 points: Kalshi has Sassuolo at 38%, Axle at 35%.
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Hop on a side before kickoff
Pick a side, then say why in a take. Change it any time before kickoff. Counts in the weekly pick'em.
How the two sides compare
All Serie A ratings| GEN | SAS | |
|---|---|---|
| Rating | 1395 13th of 20 | 1350 17th of 20 |
| Record | 4-6-1 | 2-7-2 |
| Last 5 games | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Home field | No | Yes |
| Meetings won | 4 | 0 |
Blue marks the better side of each row. This line uses ratings from results and home advantage; record, last 5 results and meetings are context only, not inputs.
How Axle's line has moved
Every stored line
| Stored | SAS win | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 10, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | 0 |
| Nov 9, 5:04 AM ET | 35% | — |
Genoa vs Sassuolo odds on Kalshi and Polymarket
Every Serie A marketKalshi prices Sassuolo at 38%, Polymarket at 38%, and Axle 2.0 gives them 35%.
Prices read: Kalshi ; Polymarket ; Axle 2.0 .
| Source | GEN | Draw | SAS | Price read | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 34% | 28% | 38% | ||
| Polymarket | 34% | 28% | 38% | ||
| Bandwagon model | 36% | 30% | 35% | · model 2.0 |
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Market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for analysis. Bandwagon does not take or place wagers. How this works
Genoa vs Sassuolo prediction
Bandwagon's model has this one even: 35% for the Sassuolo, 30% for a draw. The model total is 3. Ratings: Sassuolo 1350 (17th of 20), Genoa 1395 (13th). The Sassuolo are 2-7-2; the Genoa are 4-6-1. The Sassuolo have won 0 of their last 5; the Genoa 3 of their last 5. The two have met 4 times in Bandwagon's results history; the Sassuolo won 0, the Genoa 4.
Written from the numbers on this page by a template; nothing here is an opinion.
Form, head-to-head and injuries
Recent form
Genoa
| Opponent | Kick (ET) | Result | Picks | Axle | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs AC Milan | L 1–2 | – | – | matchup | |
| at Lecce | W 2–1 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Juventus | W 2–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| vs Venezia | W 1–0 | – | – | matchup | |
| at AS Roma | L 0–2 | – | – | matchup |
Sassuolo
Head-to-head
Injuries
Genoa: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
Sassuolo: nobody listed as injured by the roster source
From the roster source's status flag only; no depth chart or game-time status.
Standings and ratings
All ratings- Genoa4-6-1 13th
- Genoa rating1395 13th of 20, 11 games
- Sassuolo2-7-2 17th
- Sassuolo rating1350 17th of 20, 11 games
More Serie A games in the next 7 days
The bandwagon on each team
Genoa 4-6-1
Serie A · 13th
No stances yet today on $GENOA: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Genoa bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Sassuolo 2-7-2
Serie A · 17th
No stances yet today on $SASSUOLO: the share of the crowd ▲ on the Sassuolo bandwagon, fans and neutrals counted apart.
Takes on Genoa at Sassuolo
Sign in to post a take on $GENOASASSUOLO261122: ▲ on the bandwagon or ▼ off it, and why.
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How Axle makes this line
How this line is made
In Serie A a line is made from the ratings and home advantage alone: a calibration layer using the other inputs did not beat rating-only out of sample here. Travel and time zones did not improve the line here; injuries and weather are collected but not yet measured.
Internal
- Ratings from results usedan Elo-style rating per team from every final score, with margin of victory · Bandwagon's stored results
- Home advantage usedthe league's home edge, none at a neutral site · Bandwagon's model constants, checked against results
- Schedule in the data, not usedrest days, back-to-back games and three games in four days · Bandwagon's stored fixtures
- Recent form in the data, not usedaverage margin over each side's last games this season · Bandwagon's stored results
External
- Injuries unavailable for this game · More than three days to kickoff; lists are used inside that windowplayers listed out or doubtful, weighted by their share of the team's playing time · Public injury lists and box scores
- Travel and time zones in the data, not useddistance and time-zone change from each side's last game to the venue · Wikidata coordinates, Open-Meteo time zones · read Oct 29, 10:36 PM UTC
- Weather in the data, not usedforecast wind, rain and temperature around kickoff at open-air venues · Open-Meteo forecasts · read Nov 11, 6:12 AM UTC
Prediction markets and the crowd's split are shown beside the model's lines for comparison. They are not inputs. Method and record.
Model: even, draw 30%. Projected score Sassuolo 1.5, Genoa 1.5; spread even, total 3. Kalshi 38%, Polymarket 38% for Sassuolo. Genoa at Sassuolo, Sun, Nov 22, 9:00 AM ET.